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FTA: "Japan’s history is mined for evidence supporting Olson’s theory."

This is why economics is not yet a respectable science. I can't say that I disagree with the analysis presented in the article, but that says nothing at all about its truth value. Unfortunately, many of the arguments presented by economists, including theories that are diametrically opposed to one another, seem quite plausible and that is precisely the problem with economics as a discipline. The standard of proof is still stuck in the dark ages.



Economic epistemology is hard. Your data can never be controlled for all confounding variables. So you try to do the best you can.

With the difficulty of isolating variables in social data, I doubt the objectivity of large-scale empirical economics ever improves.

Other social sciences are probably worse. That's why they are stuck with the modifier "social".

So your criticism is right. The best large-scale empirical economics can offer is plausible-sounding models and examples that back them up.




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