>Not when the majority of jobs that create a vibrant middle class in the post-industrial United States require at least a college degree.
That's a self-refuting argument. If your degree was really the ticket to a "vibrant middle class" job you'd be able to pay off your student debt.
You just failed at basic logic.
Saying that jobs of type X require a degree IS NOT saying that getting a degree guarantees that you will get a job of type X. As an example, a law degree is required to become a lawyer. But only something like 70% of people graduating with law degrees will pass the bar, and be put on a track to a job where they can reasonably expect to pay back their debts.
I also see that you are happy to blame the victim. Yet many victims are not to blame. Let me take a real example, my wife. She got an MD. She went into residency. She got injured, had to take time off then leave residency. She is in another residency now. She still does not make enough to contribute towards her debts, I've been doing it instead.
She did nothing wrong. Yes, the degree was expensive, but an MD is generally a worthwhile investment. Yes, she got injured. But that was not her fault. There are no guarantees in life. Bad luck will happen to a certain fraction of people. It happened to her.
Now you have a lot to say about planning. Well back when she took on that debt, bankruptcy could discharge it. It was not until after she had the MD that the rules changed on her. Thanks to me, she's not in trouble. But when she took on the debt, the bank agreed to one set of risks, and then Congress changed the terms of the contract out from under her later. In what world is it fair that you sign one thing, and then because the right politicians got bribed, you're bound to a different thing?
>Saying that jobs of type X require a degree IS NOT saying that getting a degree guarantees that you will get a job of type X.
No, but he was talking about the majority of jobs. I understand people get unlucky. That's life. But there's a huge disconnect between what the population of college students is paying for degrees and what the job market is paying for labor. This isn't a question of some small percentage of people getting unlucky. It's a fundamental overestimation of the value of what they're buying.
>I also see that you are happy to blame the victim.
People who make dumb decisions are not victims. Like I said, not everyone is in that position because they made a dumb decision. But most of them are.
Dumb decisions like becoming a medical doctor? This isn't a matter of what decision someone's wife made. You just like blaming the victim by default and forcing them to defend themselves before your imagined seat of justice.
No, but he was talking about the majority of jobs.
You're making the exact same logic error, but this time talking about majorities, so in addition to failing at logic you're failing at statistics.
Let me point you again at the law student example. All jobs as a lawyer require law school. About 70% of people who get law degrees will successfully pass the bar, and get a high paying job they otherwise couldn't and be able to pay their debts. About 30% will fail to pass a bar, and be put on that track, with the result that their best available jobs are much lower paying and they are hosed.
Did that 30% make a bad decision to go to law school? If so, then so did a lot of the other 70%, because it is not obvious going in who will and won't succeed. Most of the time, law school is a good choice. Some of the time it is a terrible choice.
Complicating the issue even farther, very few people going into law school are aware of how high the odds are of getting into serious debt problems. Until recently there was little public awareness of it, and marketing materials from law schools certainly make no mention of the issue.
(I'm pulling up this particular example because unsuccessful law graduates make up a high portion of seriously distressed student debt, and there have been lawsuits about false advertising around this issue.)
>You're making the exact same logic error, but this time talking about majorities, so in addition to failing at logic you're failing at statistics.
One of us is being stupid, but I don't think it's me.
The assertion is college is necessary for a middle class lifestyle. What I'm saying is 1) it's not and 2) when you add up lost opportunity costs, direct costs, and interest on student debt many people (maybe even most) are losing money by going to college. Now, that's their choice, but I don't want to be on the hook for someone else's personal enrichment.
>Did that 30% make a bad decision to go to law school?
Yes. Anyone who goes to law school right now is an idiot, unless that law school is Harvard or Yale. The 70% in your example are either lucky or have been shunted into jobs that don't require a law degree or they're working as lawyers and making less than they would have made teaching Social Studies to the local second graders. The number of newly minted lawyers far, far exceeds the number of jobs for newly minted lawyers.
The exception, of course, being people who got in to the very, very top schools.
One of us is being stupid, but I don't think it's me.
You also have proven unable to parse English.
The assertion is college is necessary for a middle class lifestyle.
Your continued inability to parse English is getting old. Here, for the record, is the original assertion.
Not when the majority of jobs that create a vibrant middle class in the post-industrial United States require at least a college degree.
Now why do I say that you failed to parse this correctly? Because "majority" does not mean "all". So the majority these jobs could require a college degree but there could still be lots of them that don't require a college degree.
Going back to what you wrote...
Yes. Anyone who goes to law school right now is an idiot, unless that law school is Harvard or Yale. The 70% in your example are either lucky or have been shunted into jobs that don't require a law degree or they're working as lawyers and making less than they would have made teaching Social Studies to the local second graders. The number of newly minted lawyers far, far exceeds the number of jobs for newly minted lawyers.
Can you cite a source?
According to what I can find now, until 2009, law school had a fairly stable economic outlook. Then the bottom dropped out. Median starting income for newly graduated lawyers has dropped 35% since then. (See http://www.nalp.org/classof2011_salpressrel for a source.)
However stop and think for a second. Law school takes 3 years. People graduating this year into the dismal market entered in 2009, with decades of history of law being a good economic choice. The lifetime income for someone with a law degree averaged DOUBLE the lifetime income for someone with a bachelor's degree. In retrospect, the law degree was likely a mistake. But when they committed to it, based on the data that then existed, it looked like a good choice.
So, were all of the people who are walking around with useless newly minted law degrees demonstrating poor decision making abilities when they chose to do that? I don't really think so. They didn't spot the oncoming macro-economic train, but these things tend to be much clearer in hindsight than in advance. (I knew about the oncoming problem, but only because my brother was selling stuff to lawyers, and he told me how the financial crisis was impacting law firms.)
I give up. Instead of reading what I write you keep building straw men out of cherry picked sentences and then slap them down. It must be easier to "win" an argument that way, but you're just wasting my time and that of everyone else who reads what you write.
That's a self-refuting argument. If your degree was really the ticket to a "vibrant middle class" job you'd be able to pay off your student debt.
You just failed at basic logic.
Saying that jobs of type X require a degree IS NOT saying that getting a degree guarantees that you will get a job of type X. As an example, a law degree is required to become a lawyer. But only something like 70% of people graduating with law degrees will pass the bar, and be put on a track to a job where they can reasonably expect to pay back their debts.
I also see that you are happy to blame the victim. Yet many victims are not to blame. Let me take a real example, my wife. She got an MD. She went into residency. She got injured, had to take time off then leave residency. She is in another residency now. She still does not make enough to contribute towards her debts, I've been doing it instead.
She did nothing wrong. Yes, the degree was expensive, but an MD is generally a worthwhile investment. Yes, she got injured. But that was not her fault. There are no guarantees in life. Bad luck will happen to a certain fraction of people. It happened to her.
Now you have a lot to say about planning. Well back when she took on that debt, bankruptcy could discharge it. It was not until after she had the MD that the rules changed on her. Thanks to me, she's not in trouble. But when she took on the debt, the bank agreed to one set of risks, and then Congress changed the terms of the contract out from under her later. In what world is it fair that you sign one thing, and then because the right politicians got bribed, you're bound to a different thing?