If offshoring started before your time, that might be coloring your perception.
I had already been working in tech for decades when the offshoring craze started. It was remarkably similar to the current 'ai craze'. Loads of jobs lost, predictions it was the end of (on-shore) programming, long job searches (and even longer ones for recent grads, etc. All in the name of 'cost reduction'. Thing is, in a couple of years when the savings didn't materialize/live up to expectations, companies started hiring on-shore again (and even paid better!). Now, offshoring is just one more tool. It still exists, it's still used - but it didn't destroy domestic programming market.
Personally, I think AI will follow the same trajectory. Its gonna be rough, but then it won't be the 'magic bullet' management wants, and they'll start hiring again. AI (just like offshoring) will still be there, still be used - it will just be a tool rather then a complete replacement.
The offshoring doomsayers made it seem like offshoring would contract the domestic market, but in fact the US software labor market has grown by >100% since that time. Median software engineer compensation is up something like 90% over inflation over the same period. Clearly it hasn't been all that big of a problem for SWEs in the US.
Yep, it was a 'momentary' glitch in the matrix ... Things came back even stronger then before, and 'off-shore' just became another tool. Its still around, but it hasn't destroyed the domestic programming industry. However, it was painful for a lot programmers at the time and _seemed_ like the end of the world to them...
Which is why I say, it reminds me very strongly of the current AI trend. AI won't 'go away' - but I don't think it will 'be the end' of programmers (at least not in the next 5-10 years). It will just become another tool
I had already been working in tech for decades when the offshoring craze started. It was remarkably similar to the current 'ai craze'. Loads of jobs lost, predictions it was the end of (on-shore) programming, long job searches (and even longer ones for recent grads, etc. All in the name of 'cost reduction'. Thing is, in a couple of years when the savings didn't materialize/live up to expectations, companies started hiring on-shore again (and even paid better!). Now, offshoring is just one more tool. It still exists, it's still used - but it didn't destroy domestic programming market.
Personally, I think AI will follow the same trajectory. Its gonna be rough, but then it won't be the 'magic bullet' management wants, and they'll start hiring again. AI (just like offshoring) will still be there, still be used - it will just be a tool rather then a complete replacement.