A simpler framework with just as much explanatory power is just depression. If you spend a lot of time depressed you will "predict nine of the last five recessions" but with everything. You will have seen every bad event coming, along with a lot of bad events that didn't end up coming.
Anxiety too. When things get bad for me I always know exactly what's going to happen and it's all bad. The voice that says "well maybe not" just goes away.
