> you are also aggregating non-insider information
You're not really aggregating non-insider information, because in these cases, it's not really "information", it's just (at best) rational guessing or (at worst) gambling.
But yes, Kalshi and Polymarket essentially aggregate gambling, rational guesses, and insider information that's likely to be correct. It's a losing game unless you're an insider, and these companies profit off of other people's addictions.
You're not really aggregating non-insider information, because in these cases, it's not really "information", it's just (at best) rational guessing or (at worst) gambling.
But yes, Kalshi and Polymarket essentially aggregate gambling, rational guesses, and insider information that's likely to be correct. It's a losing game unless you're an insider, and these companies profit off of other people's addictions.