Have you considered that many people in Eastern Europe might not be able to afford a new car at all? Where I live people are keeping their older cars for longer and buying used because everything else is getting more expensive and nobody wants to go in debt for something marginally better than what they already have.

Yes, but that's also the case in Sweden and France and Spain etc. But these new things are obviously competing with other new things.

The average age of a car currently on the road in Romania, Bulgaria and Greece is about 16 years old. How do you think all those people with 16 year old beaters, will suddenly be able to afford the 20k cars?

I don't think they will. I think they'll keep driving these old cars, and that these EVs will eventually become old cars.

The lifecycle of an EV is a lot less than mostly mechanical cars that are possible to independently repair. I drive a 30 year old van and it’s still possible to get replacement parts within a day or two. I doubt you will get service for a 10 year old EV.

The original Nissan Leaf was launched in 2010 and you can still get whole replacement batteries or even just cell replacements for them.

They can also be upgraded to increase their range using after market batteries.

So we’re already at 15 years and counting.

I don't think that's true. I see ICE vehicles as complex, with lots of parts that wear etc. and which are problematic, while I see BEVs as straightforward.

Maybe the batteries will wear out, but what will a replacement battery cost in 10 years? Presumably even less than now.

The comment by Lio beside this one also makes it hard for me to take a view like yours.

No one has to suddenly be able to afford a new car. The phase-out of combustion vehicles is for new vehicles. Old cars can still be driven.

> This is cheaper than most petrol cars.

Still somewhat more expensive than petrol cars in the same category, though.