> market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
This is more mantra - professional shorts exist and they make money. So either you know something (in which case you'd be mum about it and just placing your bets) or you know nothing.
You can't both talk about "professional shorts" and use it as an argument against somebody who is not a financial professional. This argument is invalid because not every person who is skeptical about current AI companies' perspectives is willing or able to become a professional short just to make a point on it. One can have a perfectly valid argument and still not be a professional short based on it.
Actually, anyone with a brain can see that it's a huge and massively inflated bubble, but can also see that it's a fools game to try to time it without professional insight into the market. What we can do is make sure we're not overextended on the bubble participants, but that's about it.
No amount of hype from your side can make it a non-bubble market when OpenAI and other companies make wild and impossible to fulfill promises for infrastructure buildup that rely on vague promises of circular money lending between AI SaaS and infra companies.
> Actually, anyone with a brain can see that it's a huge and massively inflated bubble, but can also see that it's a fools game to try to time it without professional insight into the market.
"The bubble is both obvious and also completely unpredictable".
Yes, it does. You may know what there would be realignment, but you don't know where or how, and may not possess the professional knowledge and resources required to profit from it directly. The known part is general, the unknown part is specific and time-dependent.
Someone else already said: yes all companies go to zero on a timeline that includes the heat death of the universe. Your claim is about as clever as that.
No, that would only work after getting really high. You know, when somebody asks "why this thing is such and such?" and you answer "why things are at all? Maybe it's all just our imagination, dude! Maybe nothing makes sense and we are living in a simulation! Dude, just feel you mind expanding!"
But if we lay off the bong for a bit and think soberly, then no, knowing that certain economic process is not sustainable and will eventually collapse, but not being able to profit from it is not the same as saying every bubble would pop at the heat death of the universe, billions years for now. It's so not the same that the very comparison should be immediately perceived as absurd.
This is more mantra - professional shorts exist and they make money. So either you know something (in which case you'd be mum about it and just placing your bets) or you know nothing.