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If quantum computing would progress just like in the last 30 years it may take 300 years before it can be useful.

https://eprint.iacr.org/2025/1237.pdf



  As has been previously pointed out, the 2001 and 2012 quantum factorisation records may be easily matched with a dog trained to bark three times [33]. We verified this by taking a recently-calibrated reference dog, Scribble, depicted in Figure 6, and having him bark three times, thus simultaneously factorising both 15 and 21. This process wasn’t as simple as it first appeared because Scribble is very well behaved and almost never barks. Having him perform the quantum factorisation required having his owner play with him with a ball in order to encourage him to bark. It was a special performance just for this publication, because he understands the importance of evidence-based science.
I look forward to more dog-based science.


> we also estimate that factorising at least two-digit numbers should be within most dogs’ capabilities, assuming the neighbours don’t start complaining first


> Similarly, we refer to an abacus as “an abacus” rather than a digital computer, despite the fact that it relies on digital manipulation to effect its computations.

I loved this quote as well


This deserves an Ig Nobel Prize lol.


Ig Nobel’s go to actual research, not to satire.


If you know a better way to factor 35, I’d like to hear it.


If we know anything, it's that development is never linear


If anyone had made meaningful progress on QC in that time there is no way knowledge of it would be allowed to be public.

It is one of those domains where success would land you in a gilded prison.


Like LLMs, this isn't the sort of thing where a small group would make a sudden advancement and be made secret, and I doubt that the NSA can make theirs significantly faster than any industry team today. I think more likely you would need to get worried if someone got one scalable to hundreds or thousands of logical qubits and then stopped publishing.


> I think more likely you would need to get worried if someone got one scalable to hundreds or thousands of logical qubits and then stopped publishing.

Consider the likelihood of managing that without alerting the authorities to what is going on.


Thanks for sharing this, great read.




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