Ejabberd has been around since forever, and people have been saying that forever. Why would it suddenly happen now?
One thing I do agree with is that collaboration tools have to come first. We've become unable to do anything without a company/boss, completely atomized. Three or four programmers/designers who hang out should be able to do anything together. Put them in a downtown office with some MBA prick alternately yelling at them and kissing their asses, and they can build empires that they get to share 5% of.
Yeah that made me laugh, aint no way average people are going to care. They already assume things are maximally bad. They assume things aree completely public and still choose to overshare. They are past the point in caring and I dont blame them, its near impossible to actually take serious without going down a schizo rabbit hole.
Given our current surveillance state with social networks, I don't see (1) or (2) as real options.