Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submitlogin

NOT A SINGLE CITY managed to lower down housing prices by increasing density.

Not Tokyo, not Moscow, not Austin.



That's a non sequitur. Tokyo is plenty dense and already has affordable housing.


Here's the chart of Tokyo real estate prices: https://www.globalpropertyguide.com/asia/japan/home-price-tr...

All while just 3 hours away by car, beautiful houses are crumbling into dust. You literally can get them for the price of the land tax, and there are even companies that specialize in finding them.

Any questions?


Yeah, affordable if you are on American digital nomad visa wages.


You have apparently no experience in Tokyo. plenty of cheap places.

First one I clicked, $600 a month

https://suumo.jp/chintai/jnc_000099304610/?bc=100450374320

I can find cheaper


> You have apparently no experience

Please don't cross into personal attack. Your comment would be just fine without that bit.

https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html


Ah yes, a micro-apartment the same size as the average American kitchen [1], how affordable!

For comparison, Seattle WA has a minimum wage around 2.5x higher than Tokyo. Here is a larger apartment [2] that is only 1.33x more expensive than your Tokyo broom closet.

Go ahead and find something more akin to the American sized apartments (500sq+ for 1 bd) and you'll see that the prices are almost the same, with much lower wages across the board.

[1]: https://kb.nkba.org/2016/11/new-nkba-research-defines-averag... [2]: https://www.apartments.com/amherst-micro-studios-seattle-wa/...


The key difference is that microapartments are actually an option in Tokyo, whereas they are against code in virtually the entire US.


Well, duh.

As a result, the US also doesn't have such a collapsing population as Japan.


Math is simple.

Build more houses per year than people who want to move to the city. Prices will decrease.

NYC did this over 100 years ago, it became one of the world's most important cities.

SF did the same thing, it became a tier 1 world city.

Same for Chicago.

Then they stopped doing it.

Then no other city in America even bothered trying.

Also housing prices don't go down immediately with new construction, there is a latency. More so, sometimes prices just stabilize, but if prices stay the same for 5 years, and inflation and wages go up, that means the effective price of housing went down. If you keep building and prices stay the same for a decade, all of a sudden houses are affordable.

SF


> Build more houses per year than people who want to move to the city. Prices will decrease.

No, they won't. For the same reason adding a lane to a busy freeway doesn't increase the traffic speed.


Austin LITERALLY has falling housing prices from building more units

https://www.texastribune.org/2025/01/22/austin-texas-rents-f...

> A massive apartment building boom in the Austin-Round Rock region has driven rents downward, real estate experts and housing advocates have said.

Why do you even think this?

The evidence is screaming that we are clearly in a massive housing shortage.


> Austin LITERALLY has falling housing prices from building more units

No, they don't. They got a one-time pause in the price growth from a _falling_ overall population. Here's the price chart for housing in Austin: https://imgur.com/a/WzauEIp

The population has either not yet recovered, or it has just recovered to the peak 2019 level. I have conflicting data. But nevertheless, once it comfortably passes the 2019 peak, the prices will continue growing.


They why dont we build as much housing as possible? Since if prices never fall or never even rise slower we clearly can make infinite wealth?


> They why dont we build as much housing as possible?

Because it's not possible. Large cities can't sustainably grow at more than single digit percentage per year speed.

And at that speed, the density/price death spiral easily consumes all the housing.

Seattle was mentioned here, and it grew its number of housing units by 25% over 12 years. Oftentimes leading the country in the number of active cranes.

Can you guess what happened with housing costs? I give you three guesses.

> Since if prices never fall or never even rise slower we clearly can make infinite wealth?

No. You get the fall of democracy, demographic collapse, and in general other nasty consequences when the bill comes due.

Because it's essentially a zero-sum game now. The population growth has mostly ended, so every new dense housing unit in NYC means a new abandoned house in rural Ohio.

Want a stat that will blow your mind? The US has 1.1 housing units per family. We literally have more houses than families in the country. Yet somehow it's a "housing crisis".


Migration rates are so high incumbent home owners view neighbors as a loss now and do everything they can to prevent more.


Denver Colorado has done it. For the most part Denver has been growing in a good way too, lots of new apartments zoned along light rail lines etc.

https://coloradosun.com/2025/04/26/apartment-rents-denver-fa...


Denver real estate index: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DNXRSA

Next "example", please.

Edit: as expected, the reason for the price pause is the falling population. https://data.census.gov/table/ACSST1Y2019.S0101?q=Denver,+CO

2019 - 727211

2021 - 711463

2023 - 716577

More and more data seem to confirm my points.



I can't... I just can't.

You're pointing yourself at a graph that shows an exponential spike in prices up until 2023, just as my model of density-price death spiral predicts.

And the only reason the prices stopped growing is the population _decrease_ after COVID lockdowns. The ACS data series ( https://data.census.gov/table/ACSST5Y2020.S0101?q=Austin,+TX ) gives 979,263 people in 2019, and by 2023 it recovered to 979,200 after falling to 944,658 in 2021.

So no, Austin has not managed to lower prices by building more. It managed to do that by using a worldwide pandemic that lowered the city population.

And yes, lowering the population is the only way to lower the housing cost. You don't have other options.


No one is claiming that if you increase density the price will always go below the price before you added incremental units. People correctly point out with data the as you add marginal units the rate of price increase goes down. So the future price will be lower than it would be absent those marginal units. It's super basic economics.


I just made a post saying the same thing so I feel the need to play devil's advocate - Induced demand also exists. Seattle got hit by this last decade when the Bay Area had no more construction but we still had some, people flooded here for affordable houses. Denver also got a lot of this, and so did Austin more recently.

Math has to take into account that if 30k people want to move to a city, and you build 40k houses ( to drop prices), well now maybe 50k people want to move to the city and prices will still go up!


Austin is a bad example, since prices actually went down about 17% in the last 3 years.

If you create the regulatory climate that allows the market to provide housing, you can probably absorb a few tens of thousands of people over a few years. Most of these places don’t do that at all, other than Austin.




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: