Most fertilizer and fuel used in US agriculture is domestically produced. We do import some fertilizer from China. For fertilizers manufactured using natural gas as a feed stock, the US is well positioned to expand production because we have cheaper and more abundant supplies.
In other words, the threat model people should be worrying about isn't "bare shelves due to no goods from China to stock them" but rather "bare shelves because the entities who make the goods to stock them are missing critical components". And that's much harder for someone to predict what impact it'll have.
I imagine that my daily life is very skewed away from direct impact from a Chinese embargo relative to other US citizens. And even still, I'm pretty sure it's going to be a problem.
Daily life is very skewed away from understanding how everything works. Supply chains, power grids, the Internet, large-scale farming - these are all complete mysteries to most people. They see the results but they have no idea how the sausage is made. (Or shipped.)
It's one reason why this is happening at all. People not only don't know what makes a lightbulb turn on, they can't imagine the complexity of a power grid and how it's stabilised.
They don't have the first idea how a phone works, or how much science, engineering, and fundamental research went into making it work.
When they don't know any of this, they can't imagine any of it having a serious problem.
