I agree on the underlying premise - current crop of LLMs isn't good enough at coding to completely autonomously achieve a minimum quality level for actually reliable products.
I don't see how peak vibe coding in a few months follows that. Check revenue and growth figures for products like Lovable ($10m+ ARR) or Bolt.new ($30m+ ARR). This doesn't show costs (they might in fact be deep in red) but with story like that I don't see it crashing in 3-4 months.
On the user experience/expectation side, I can see how the overhyped claims of "build complete apps" hit a peak, but that will still leave the tools positioned strong for "quick prototyping and experimentation". IMHO, that alone is enough to prevent a cliff drop.
Even allowing for the peak in tool usage for coding specifically, I don't see how that causes "AI winter", since LLMs are now used in a wide variety of cases and that use is strongly growing (and uncorrelated to the whole "AI coding" market).
Finally, "costs will go up for all sorts of reasons" claim is dubious, since the costs per token are dropping even while the models are getting better (for a quick example, cost of GPT-4.1 is roughly 50% of GPT-4o while being an improvement).
For these reasons, if I could bet against your prediction, I'd immediately take that bet.
I don't see how peak vibe coding in a few months follows that. Check revenue and growth figures for products like Lovable ($10m+ ARR) or Bolt.new ($30m+ ARR). This doesn't show costs (they might in fact be deep in red) but with story like that I don't see it crashing in 3-4 months.
On the user experience/expectation side, I can see how the overhyped claims of "build complete apps" hit a peak, but that will still leave the tools positioned strong for "quick prototyping and experimentation". IMHO, that alone is enough to prevent a cliff drop.
Even allowing for the peak in tool usage for coding specifically, I don't see how that causes "AI winter", since LLMs are now used in a wide variety of cases and that use is strongly growing (and uncorrelated to the whole "AI coding" market).
Finally, "costs will go up for all sorts of reasons" claim is dubious, since the costs per token are dropping even while the models are getting better (for a quick example, cost of GPT-4.1 is roughly 50% of GPT-4o while being an improvement).
For these reasons, if I could bet against your prediction, I'd immediately take that bet.