I think it mostly estimates the wrong changes. Sci fi from the first half of the twentieth century overshot in its predictions of universal flying cars and interstellar travel, but generally missed the internet or the idea that women would be in any way involved in the science. And it's amazing just how many plots up until the end of the last century assume mobile communication isn't routine

Yeah. I think it is because most SF is not actually about predicting the future, but analyzing modern society. So, they take modern society and make one or two big changes that allow the author to discuss their thing.

If they correctly account for long term change, especially after introducing their big twist, then they won’t have a society that reflects modern society, it will just be totally alien.

Sometimes. A lot of SF assumes FTL travel, which we have no reason to think will ever be possible (and even less possible when you realize they also are assuming to time dilation effects).

IIRC Alain Dalmasio talks about this a lot and tried to readjust how his SF anticipates changes.