Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submitlogin

>but even then they'd likely be able to make something like a 1750s era blacksmith

They don't mine ore. Once they've scavenged all the scrap, they couldn't make nails. That probably wouldn't be the biggest disadvantage though... they couldn't make much of any manufactured good, and their lifestyle depends on it. Whatever institutional knowledge they had for how to live in the 18th century is long gone.

When they're back to a single-row iron plow pulled behind draft animals, they're not going to be getting 70 bushels of wheat per acre, they'll be getting 10. And then they won't be able to feed large numbers. None of what they do now works if our society fails, they need us. And they don't know how to do things they way they used to do, either.



> They don't mine ore. Once they've scavenged all the scrap, they couldn't make nails.

All rusty metal is indistinguishable from high-quality ore. They'll only "run out" when all the rust finally washes into the oceans.

And even then, iron-rich bacteria are where John Plant (the Primitive Technology guy) gets his small quantities, and he starts many of his videos at the level of showing the stick he uses to dig the clay out of the ground to build the furnace in which he bakes the pot he uses to collect and concentrate the bacteria: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Primitive_Technology

Before that becomes necessary, current production of the metal (not just the ore) is around the gigaton/year level, so there's going to be a lot of scrap to get through.

> That probably wouldn't be the biggest disadvantage though... they couldn't make much of any manufactured good, and their lifestyle depends on it. Whatever institutional knowledge they had for how to live in the 18th century is long gone.

Even if there was a literally overnight displacement, which there won't be, libraries with printed texts still exist.

> And then they won't be able to feed large numbers.

What do you mean by "large numbers"? At a minimum, 791 million — because that's what we actually did feed in 1750.

That's not "extinction". That's not even close to extinction.

And that's without any assumptions about any modern knowledge that could be applied to low-industrial society, such as knowing how cholera is transmitted in order to prevent it.


Doesn't it take a lot of energy to convert rust back into something usable? Once Iron oxidizes it is pretty locked in.

So maybe this whole thread should be talking about mining coal as more the limit. The survivors wont have enough energy.


> Doesn't it take a lot of energy to convert rust back into something usable?

The required level is achievable with a furnace made from clay, with an air pump made from sticks and leaves and mud, heated by charcoal made from heating logs in the absence of oxygen: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLGnWLXjIDnpBVRqu5lz5JGaQx...

(And again, this guy is starting basically from scratch each time; he's more interested in that than in practical re-industrialisation).

Coal is nice to have, not mandatory.


Not alot of Amish coal miners either.




Consider applying for YC's Summer 2026 batch! Applications are open till May 4

Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: