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Risk is severity of harm * probably of harm.

Of the ~3 million Americans that tried Alcohol for the first time in 2023 how many exactly died from an overdose that night? That’s what low risk looks like.



According to the CDC, it seems about 6 people die per day of alcohol poisoning, or ~2,191 per year, so about .07%. Nearly 3/4 are men, which doesn't particularly surprise me, but what does surprise me is that the average age was 49 years, and only 5% were aged 18-24. I would've expected the numbers to be shifted left far more than that. Also interesting was that the overwhelming majority (71%) had a long history of alcohol use problems. In 58%, death was attributed solely to acute alcohol toxicity, but in 42% there was an underlying disease present as well. Huh.


~3 million is number of first time drinkers not the total number of people drinking alcohol in the US. ~180 million people drink alcohol one or more times a year so 2,191 per year is ~0.0012% per year.

The risk on the first time they consumed alcohol is probably 1/100th of that due to younger ages etc.




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