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A missing part of the "flawed" plan: it was relying on expectation that battery ranges would improve exponentially thanks to all the "breakthroughs" that were published on a regular basis to get views on tech news site.

Except, no, it still does not work as a drop-in replacement, so you have to change the whole society instead, which sucks because we're kinda on a deadline here, aren't we ?

To put it mildly "the engineers got their estimates wrong, the salespersons oversold, and now we have to do a massive redesign of the product to give you only 60% of what you used to have".

Or, to put it less mildly, "everyone lied, and now we're in trouble".



A typical high end 18650 cell in 1997 was 1600mAh. A typical high end 18650 cell in 2023 was 3200mAh.

So it took us 25 years to get a 2x density improvement in li-ion cells.

We desperately need higher density but it is very slow going. The density necessary to "save" EVs for the layman is unfortunately not coming soon.


There's multiple layers of efficiency, the cell, the pack, the motor, the heater, aero, lightweighting.

And then the BMS, thermal management and charging improvements and greater provision all allow for smaller batteries (which reduces weight and allows for smaller batteries recursively).

Not to mention cost reductions in batteries and electrcity. Overall a 2023 EV is more than 2x a 1997 EV.


As an EV owner, range doesn’t matter to me beyond ~200 miles real world or so. It’s the 10-70% charge speed that matters the most. And advances are being made there- see KIA/Hyundai.




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