Russia's summarily failed at every strategic goal it's tried to achieve in this war, which is the reason this has turned into a war of attrition.
- The original Russian push into Ukraine somewhat looked like blitzkrieg tactics -- a fast move across the countryside from the northeastern UA/RU border, which ended up turning into an overextension with a substantially failed retreat caused by difficult terrain.
- VDV troops were dropped into Hostomel and around the Kyiv region within the first few days of the war. If the 3-day figure wasn't official (I'm having trouble finding original Russian-language video or audio which confirms this), then certainly, taking Kyiv within the first days of the war was the plan, going off the moves RU made.
- Russian losses have so far, by conservative estimates, exceeded Ukrainian losses for both personnel and equipment, though I'll grant you that this is the kind of figure that gets manipulated during a conflict and we likely won't have truly reliable, hard-to-dispute numbers until long after the war ends. One thing's almost certain, though -- Russian equipment losses have been much more substantial than those of their western counterparts.
- Russia's personnel losses have also been at least substantial enough to warrant the implementation of multiple rounds of mobilization as well as penal battalions, and all accounts from both returned Ukrainian POWs, captured Russian POWs, and Russian defectors have been that the battlefield conditions on the Russian side are awful (notably; awful in the context of it being a shooting war).
- Russian advances and Ukrainian advances are effectively at a stalemate, with Russia repelling Ukraine's moves mostly through sheer volume of artillery fire. It's alleged that Russia's nearly burned through their artillery shell and rocket stockpile, and their military is resorting to dealing with North Korea to secure a supply for the coming winter. Any gains from now on will be pretty marginal barring either asymmetric depletion of resources or one side suddenly gaining a wonder weapon of some kind.
- Ukraine has been effectively employing both maritime and airborne drones to strike within Russian-held territory, both in Ukraine (see the recent strikes within the port of Sevastopol) as well as within Russia's borders proper (multiple strikes on military installations in the Rostov and Voronezh oblasts).
- Russia has also been responsible for striking indiscriminately at civilians, from cyberattacks on key pieces of civilian infrastructure (especially earlier in the war) to outright bombing of civilian locations which weren't being used to house UA armed forces.
- Last (in this comment) but certainly not least -- Russia also imposed mass deportation on people in Russian-held Ukrainian territory, which was documented by the UN earlier in the war. Those who stayed behind are reportedly being drafted into the AFRF.
This war is going poorly for all involved, but right now it seems like Russia's going to much more desperate measures at the time.
I'm personally hoping for quick regime change in Russia leading to the end of the war, withdrawal of Russian troops from all of Ukraine's territory, and criminal prosecution of those responsible for the (frankly, at this point, countless) atrocities committed in this war. Realistically, I know this is unlikely to happen, since by all accounts this war remains popular in large parts of Russia.
At a minimum, I do hope that Ukraine comes out of this alive, and that it becomes eligible to join NATO and the EU down the line, since Russia clearly can't be held at their word after promising to respect the territorial sovereignty of other nations (as they did in Budapest, Minsk, and later Minsk II after the initial 2014 invasion).
> If the 3-day figure wasn't official (I'm having trouble finding original Russian-language video or audio which confirms this), then certainly, taking Kyiv within the first days of the war was the plan, going off the moves RU made.
The automatically posted then deleted victory articles on Russian state run RIA and Sputnik news agencies certainly suggests that they were expecting the war to be short.
- The original Russian push into Ukraine somewhat looked like blitzkrieg tactics -- a fast move across the countryside from the northeastern UA/RU border, which ended up turning into an overextension with a substantially failed retreat caused by difficult terrain.
- VDV troops were dropped into Hostomel and around the Kyiv region within the first few days of the war. If the 3-day figure wasn't official (I'm having trouble finding original Russian-language video or audio which confirms this), then certainly, taking Kyiv within the first days of the war was the plan, going off the moves RU made.
- Russian losses have so far, by conservative estimates, exceeded Ukrainian losses for both personnel and equipment, though I'll grant you that this is the kind of figure that gets manipulated during a conflict and we likely won't have truly reliable, hard-to-dispute numbers until long after the war ends. One thing's almost certain, though -- Russian equipment losses have been much more substantial than those of their western counterparts.
- Russia's personnel losses have also been at least substantial enough to warrant the implementation of multiple rounds of mobilization as well as penal battalions, and all accounts from both returned Ukrainian POWs, captured Russian POWs, and Russian defectors have been that the battlefield conditions on the Russian side are awful (notably; awful in the context of it being a shooting war).
- Russian advances and Ukrainian advances are effectively at a stalemate, with Russia repelling Ukraine's moves mostly through sheer volume of artillery fire. It's alleged that Russia's nearly burned through their artillery shell and rocket stockpile, and their military is resorting to dealing with North Korea to secure a supply for the coming winter. Any gains from now on will be pretty marginal barring either asymmetric depletion of resources or one side suddenly gaining a wonder weapon of some kind.
- Ukraine has been effectively employing both maritime and airborne drones to strike within Russian-held territory, both in Ukraine (see the recent strikes within the port of Sevastopol) as well as within Russia's borders proper (multiple strikes on military installations in the Rostov and Voronezh oblasts).
- Russia has also been responsible for striking indiscriminately at civilians, from cyberattacks on key pieces of civilian infrastructure (especially earlier in the war) to outright bombing of civilian locations which weren't being used to house UA armed forces.
- Last (in this comment) but certainly not least -- Russia also imposed mass deportation on people in Russian-held Ukrainian territory, which was documented by the UN earlier in the war. Those who stayed behind are reportedly being drafted into the AFRF.
This war is going poorly for all involved, but right now it seems like Russia's going to much more desperate measures at the time.
I'm personally hoping for quick regime change in Russia leading to the end of the war, withdrawal of Russian troops from all of Ukraine's territory, and criminal prosecution of those responsible for the (frankly, at this point, countless) atrocities committed in this war. Realistically, I know this is unlikely to happen, since by all accounts this war remains popular in large parts of Russia.
At a minimum, I do hope that Ukraine comes out of this alive, and that it becomes eligible to join NATO and the EU down the line, since Russia clearly can't be held at their word after promising to respect the territorial sovereignty of other nations (as they did in Budapest, Minsk, and later Minsk II after the initial 2014 invasion).