It probably is the case that they did discover something (whether an algorithm or good business model via legal tax evasion). Imagine if einstein went into financial trading instead of physics. I think what regular people fail to understand, there are people out there with the intellect to make hundreds of millions. Meaning, they can understand society on an abstract level that makes good business opportunities obvious. Most will never interact with a single person like this in their whole life.
I don't think Einstein going into financial trading would have necessarily translated to him being incredibly successful as trader or building a trading firm. History is filled with stories of incredibly smart people ending up in finacial troubles.
e.g.
- Newton's investment in South Sea Bubble
- Long Term Capital Group with multiple noble laureates imploding so bad that it almost took down Wall Street in late 90s (When Genuis Failed is a fascinating read
I think believing in this kind of determinism is harmful, mostly to the individual who holds the belief, but also at scale, when many fools hold this belief. It makes you ripe for exploitation and deceives you into being or staying a loser, "oh if only I had that arcane magic ability that he has...". Fortune, grit, and deception [1] make kings, not some kind of magic superhuman sixth sense.
[1] Deception also prevents the making of kings, as in the case of the man who believes magic is what he'll need to succeed, and it's this magic he doesn't have.
No its just the reality in a capitalist economy. Human beings are normally distributed, by definition there are people on the far right tail of ability. Its a numbers game.
Eh. I studied math at an elite university with a lot of people who ended up at these secretive quant hedge funds. They're undeniably brilliant, and as per GP also extremely motivated and hard working (brilliance alone doesn't cut it!).
They're also heavily dependent on collaboration with others, availability of data, the existence of the right tools, and so on. Unlike in comic books, raw intelligence alone doesn't get you very far. But put a bunch of very smart people together for a decade+ with a lot of money on their hands and you can definitely make magic happen.
