> Agile, for example, suggests that decreasing the cost of change at the expense of certainty of cost will increase the total chances of delivery within cost and date
Yes, that's the promise. I've seen it tried as earnestly as possible over the past 20 or so years since the term became popular, but I've never seen it deliver on its promises either. I suspect that a lot of that is psychological - risk-averse management hears "on time and on budget" and consciously or unconsciously starts steering the development process back to a more predictable seeming waterfall style that negates the supposed benefits of "agile" development.
I assert, however, based on 30 years of observation, that no matter how carefully you follow an agile delivery framework, whatever that may be, actual delivery and cost will have no relationship whatsoever on your estimated cost and date.
But I also predict that you and I will continue to smile and nod when they insist that it must be finished by such and such date.
Yes, that's the promise. I've seen it tried as earnestly as possible over the past 20 or so years since the term became popular, but I've never seen it deliver on its promises either. I suspect that a lot of that is psychological - risk-averse management hears "on time and on budget" and consciously or unconsciously starts steering the development process back to a more predictable seeming waterfall style that negates the supposed benefits of "agile" development.
I assert, however, based on 30 years of observation, that no matter how carefully you follow an agile delivery framework, whatever that may be, actual delivery and cost will have no relationship whatsoever on your estimated cost and date.
But I also predict that you and I will continue to smile and nod when they insist that it must be finished by such and such date.