New car loans are not only longer (> 6 years) and also more expensive than previous loans. Also, people stop paying when they lose their job, so the trigger may be the start of a recession.
Some of them. A bit less than half of loans at Capital One are more than 5 years, for instance. (I'm just overly familiar with that company.) But a 6 year loan from June 2021 is still almost 1/3 paid off.
The other question is if there's a recession, how much will used car prices, for cars that were new in 2021, drop.
