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Your Bayesian estimations make no sense. When the alternative is that it is the daughter who survived to 98 (which is already old) rather than the mother surviving to 122, the question should be phrased as "if you are older than 98 what is the probability that your age is 122".


The probability, except for her sole claim, is zero. Nobody has lived to 121 or even 120.


Well... a probability of zero is self-evidently incorrect.




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