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Another hypothesis is: *waves at general state of things since the mid 2000s*


You'd have to show that the "general state of things since the mid 2000s" has gotten appreciably worse than the time period prior to 2012. Rewind a decade and we had 9/11 and the Iraq war, so it doesn't seem immediately obvious that things got significantly worse.


At least in the US, the public was more united in its support for the wars in the middle east at their outset in the early 2000s than they have been for anything since. The war in Afghanistan initially had 88% support[1] and the war in Iraq had 76%, though it fell to 72% shortly after[2].

[1] https://news.gallup.com/poll/9994/public-opinion-war-afghani... [2] https://news.gallup.com/poll/8038/seventytwo-percent-america...




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