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If increased productivity equaled job loss, there would be two programmers alive today

Increased productivity doesn't necessarily lead to overall job loss, but it will eventually in the area where the productivity is realized. Agricultural employment is a very clear example.

https://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/assets/4565243/Ag_workforce.png



otoh the rise of ATMs seems to have increased the number of bank tellers


Well, yes, it got down, but only from 12 mln to 5.5 mln people in agriculture.


Agriculture is still automating and the population has increased what, 4x since then


The US population increased about 15x in that period and one of the major reasons for that is the increase of productivity in agriculture [0]. Higher productivity created more demand.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Revolution




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