> imagine when they realize one overworked highly paid senior can replace 10 juniors
This already happens, the market is just not very efficient about it, e.g. a highly paid senior dev is not working at a company that only needs 2-3 developers, they're working at Google with 100's of devs.
Disagree -- I think chatGPT will make juniors more palatable to hire. ChatGPT will basically give juniors a free pair programmer to baby-sit their work/progress. Why pay extra for senior devs when juniors can become much more efficient thanks to ChatGPT becoming stack-overflow on steroids. I think the wage gap between junior and senior will actually drop massively. I predict teams will keep 1-3 architect level positions for designs and reviews and replace all seniors with cheaper juniors.
I predict the wage gap will actually widen. StackOverflow-on-steroids can only give your so much, so seniors will still be in demand for what they do. It's just the competition between juniors will be fiercer so junior wages will drop.
I think dev wages will stagnate across the board. I think the simple existence of the fear of being replaced by never-tiring, always-working AI will subconsciously prime devs to be willing to work for less. Devs have been in a market with a significant shortage of skilled labor; can we say that remains true after GPT hits the mainstream even more than it already has?
Right now? It made a splash but who uses ai for building their software this very moment? Nobody knows how the industry will land on this. Adoption will take time - it's not gonna be a year.
I remember after ruby on rails first demo, next day people had their websites up in ror. Here we will see, but it will be a bigger shift.
This already happens, the market is just not very efficient about it, e.g. a highly paid senior dev is not working at a company that only needs 2-3 developers, they're working at Google with 100's of devs.