I don't know why people think this is such a bad take, if we look at just gpt over the past few years gpt-2 -> 3 -> 3.5 (2019,2020,2022) is absolutely a 2x gain, and I don't think anyone's in a better spot to determine what improvements gpt4 will bring.

Humans set a high bar on intelligence but it seems inevitable that even with no significant changes we'll be overtaken, at least in breadth of knowledge