The 4Q22 numbers are out. US GDP increased nearly 3%. The job market remains super tight for many classes of workers. There's simply no evidence of a broader recession.
Are there headwinds? Sure! Household debt is up, consumer spending is down as a consequence--but this is relative to a previous year when we were still feeling the effects of the COVID stimulus--and interest rates are up which will drive down debt-funded investment.
But, companies are cutting because 1) some got bloated during the COVID hiring surge and now need to cut back, 2) some always wanted to cut headcount but they didn't want to do it without air cover, and 3) some just follow the leader.
The 4Q22 numbers are out. US GDP increased nearly 3%. The job market remains super tight for many classes of workers. There's simply no evidence of a broader recession.
Are there headwinds? Sure! Household debt is up, consumer spending is down as a consequence--but this is relative to a previous year when we were still feeling the effects of the COVID stimulus--and interest rates are up which will drive down debt-funded investment.
But, companies are cutting because 1) some got bloated during the COVID hiring surge and now need to cut back, 2) some always wanted to cut headcount but they didn't want to do it without air cover, and 3) some just follow the leader.