> It's not available for ChatGPT but the other GPT models can expose the probability for each generated token, which can serve as a proxy for confidence.
A proxy for confidence in what exactly?
Language models represent closeness of words, so a high probability would only express that those words are put together frequently in the corpus of text; not that their meanings are at all relevant to the problem at hand. Am I wrong?
In cases where you ask GPT-3 questions that have a clear correct answer, I think you can use the probability to judge how correct the answer is. For example, when asking "How tall is Mount Everest?" I would want the completion "Mount Everest is ____ meters above sea level." to have a very high probability for the ____ tokens.
This is because I'm operating under the assumption that sequences of words that appear often in the training set are more likely to represent something correct (otherwise you might as well train on random words). This only holds if the training set is big enough that you can estimate correctly (e.g. if the training set is small a very rare/wrong phrase may appear very often).
Maybe confidence was the wrong word, but for this kind of questions I would trust a high-probability answer way more than a low one. For questions belonging to very specific subjects, where training material is scarce, the model might have very skewed probabilities so they become less useful.
> In cases where you ask GPT-3 questions that have a clear correct answer, I think you can use the probability to judge how correct the answer is. For example, when asking "How tall is Mount Everest?" I would want the completion "Mount Everest is ____ meters above sea level." to have a very high probability for the ____ tokens.
Maybe, as long as you're aware that this is the same kind of correctness that you get from looking at Google's first search results (the old kind of organic pages, not the "knowledge graph", which uses an different process - precisely to avoid being spammed by SEO) i.e. "correctness by popularity".
This means that the content that is more replicated will be considered more true by the system, regardless of its connection to reality or its coherence with the rest of the knowledge in the system. And you know what they say about big enough lies that you keep repeating millions of times.
I agree, and furthermore, a search engine is constrained to pick its responses from what's already out there.
This line of thought is a distraction, anyway. The likelehood that GPT-3 will do as well as a search engine on topics where there is an unambiguous and well-known answer does little to address the more general concern.
> This means that the content that is more replicated will be considered more true by the system, regardless of its connection to reality or its coherence with the rest of the knowledge in the system.
I understand the problem, but what better way do we currently have to measure its connection to reality? At least from a practical point of view it seems that LLMs have achieved way better performance than other methods in this regard, so repeatedness doesn't look like that bad a metric. Or rather, it's the best I think we currently have.
> I understand the problem, but what better way do we currently have to measure its connection to reality?
We can consider its responses to a broader range of questions than those having an unambiguous and well-known answer. Its propensity for making up 'facts', and for fabricating 'explanations' that are incoherent or even self-contradictory shows that any apparent understanding of the world being represented in the text is illusory.
A proxy for confidence in what exactly?
Language models represent closeness of words, so a high probability would only express that those words are put together frequently in the corpus of text; not that their meanings are at all relevant to the problem at hand. Am I wrong?