This is 100% caused by the anti-Russian sanctions policy, yet not a single comment on this thread so far has even mentioned the sanctions and tried to engage in a reasoned debate about whether the economic costs paid by Europe (and especially the energy insecure nations within the EU) were worth whatever moral good boy points the sanctions buy us.
Some have suggested the sanctions help Ukraine, but haven't articulated a plausible mechanism by which this happens. I can see how sending weapons to Ukraine helps their war effort. I can see how sending money to Ukraine helps their war effort. But I fail to see how Europe de-industrializing and being plunged into a low standard of living helps Ukraine. Weakening Europe doesn't seem to be a pro-Ukraine policy position. And it's hard to think of another geopolitical tool that has a near 100% failure rate yet which is everyone's favorite tool. It's Alice in wonderland.
Meanwhile, the Russians are laughing, they have record trade surpluses and budget surpluses (in the middle of prosecuting a war) and their economy is growing again. They are not finding it hard to find buyers for their fertilizer, wheat, oil, gas, coal, etc. These are things that everyone needs, not just Europe. China and India are both backing Russia and massively ramping up trade with them. A massive trade deal with Iran is being signed. OPEC is backing them and increasing trade. Latin America is increasing trade. Africa is increasing trade, as are the central asian republics and southeast Asia. All of this should put an end to the idea that Russia needs to trade with Europe or that Europe matters a whole lot to Russia's future.
But back in Europe, which is forced to pay premiums for Russian LNG laundered through China and Russian Oil laundered through India and Malaysia, there is complete silence on the foolishness of sanctions, as article after article comes out about UK standard of living declines and German de-industrialization, with no one discussing why energy costs so much more in Europe than in the rest of the world. Instead, people are talking about Brexit, corporate greed, etc -- all the usual talking points, without a single mention of what is causing this dramatic economic decline.
There were only three top-level comments when you posted this. You could have opened this discussion calmly, but you came in running with resentment towards the community. Why did you choose to do that?
I just can't help but think there's some truth in the conspiracy theory I read on twitter from Kim Dotcom... this Ukraine war is an awfully convenient way for the US to completely decouple and destroy Europe and Russia. Which is a massive win for... the US. Who definitely didn't do much to PREVENT this war at any point.
I don't think this was necessarily 100% intentional, but it definitely seems like an energy independent, moderately industrial, innovative USA is THE biggest beneficiary of this war on the relative scale.
> this Ukraine war is an awfully convenient way for the US to completely decouple and destroy Europe and Russia
Its amazing how that needs to be said and how that is a conspiracy theory even as US foreign policy think tanks have been advocating for that and even laid out many published, well thought out plans that are being implemented to the letter now.
That's CIA's PR arm. It published that in 2019. Every single policy that it outlined is being carried out now.
The propensity of the Angloamerican public to ignore what is inconvenient and see what they like is amazing. The Brexit process and the Ukraine war has been literal sociology cases in which one could finally understand how the nonexistent Iraqi WMDs and the ensuing war was sold to the Angloamerican public.
> I don't think this was necessarily 100% intentional
I expect more people will vote far right or far left as a consequence. I'm a moderate, but the centre parties that created this mess won't get my vote again.
The ~100,000 Russian families who just had their son thrown into a meat grinder aren’t laughing.
War is hell.
People have been warning for years that Russia would continue attacking neighboring countries every other year or so, since it has been going on for years.
Can’t blame the world for finally starting to fight back.
If the UK government had war gamed this scenario, they would have realized many preparatory actions that could have been taken to protect their economy.
I mean, if, by "fighting back", you mean destroying its own economy, then yes, The West is "fighting back". But not the world, as the vast majority of nations - 7 Billion people -- are not imposing any sanctions because they have more rational leadership than in the 1 Billion people that are destroying their own economy in the name of "fighting back".
The main reason why the West is in rapid decline at the moment is because it is adopting policies based on their therapeutic value to the administrative class, rather than their effectiveness. That's a recipe for failure, and if you want to succeed rather than fail, then you need to choose your actions carefully and strategically rather than slamming your head against a granite wall because you think this means you are "fighting back".
The sanctions have driven Russia and China together to being strong allies, which is a strategic defeat for the U.S.
But you are right, they do send a "message", which is that the West is an irrational actor that undermines its own interests, and is thus an untrustworthy ally. This is why Saudi Arabia and Turkey are moving away from the U.S. towards the emerging Axis of Sanity
Well what happened was that sanctions created a sharp, fast, contraction -- maybe 5% or so. Russia measures GDP year over year, so there are still declines. But the standard way of measuring GDP is continuously -- e.g. quarter over quarter, annualized. So according to more realtime data, the contraction lasted a couple of months and they are now in expansion, but it will probably be around 2Q 2023 before the year over year data turns positive.
A reference is here, using Goldman-Sachs faster frequency data.
You're noticing the depth of the indoctrination and just how little people actually think for themselves. Even thinking about an unpopular explanation is enough to cause intense cognitive dissonance.
Some have suggested the sanctions help Ukraine, but haven't articulated a plausible mechanism by which this happens. I can see how sending weapons to Ukraine helps their war effort. I can see how sending money to Ukraine helps their war effort. But I fail to see how Europe de-industrializing and being plunged into a low standard of living helps Ukraine. Weakening Europe doesn't seem to be a pro-Ukraine policy position. And it's hard to think of another geopolitical tool that has a near 100% failure rate yet which is everyone's favorite tool. It's Alice in wonderland.
Meanwhile, the Russians are laughing, they have record trade surpluses and budget surpluses (in the middle of prosecuting a war) and their economy is growing again. They are not finding it hard to find buyers for their fertilizer, wheat, oil, gas, coal, etc. These are things that everyone needs, not just Europe. China and India are both backing Russia and massively ramping up trade with them. A massive trade deal with Iran is being signed. OPEC is backing them and increasing trade. Latin America is increasing trade. Africa is increasing trade, as are the central asian republics and southeast Asia. All of this should put an end to the idea that Russia needs to trade with Europe or that Europe matters a whole lot to Russia's future.
But back in Europe, which is forced to pay premiums for Russian LNG laundered through China and Russian Oil laundered through India and Malaysia, there is complete silence on the foolishness of sanctions, as article after article comes out about UK standard of living declines and German de-industrialization, with no one discussing why energy costs so much more in Europe than in the rest of the world. Instead, people are talking about Brexit, corporate greed, etc -- all the usual talking points, without a single mention of what is causing this dramatic economic decline.
Truly a bizarre state of public discourse.