The consultants come in, recommend you fire 10% of your workforce, and when you pull the trigger you say, sorry McKinsey made me do it! Likewise, the recommendations made by the software are non-binding, but if pushed you say “well the algorithm said so…”
In either case, it’s the c-suite/property manager making the call. But it seems that we like a measure of distance between ourselves and unpleasant decisions. The algorithm/well-groomed 20-somethings provide a kind of plausible deniability.
Start with whoever nobody likes. You can probably find the least-liked 30% of the company by asking around. The big upside is you will get less grumbling for firing them! Everyone wins!
If you ask around people will get nervous and figure out what's going on. Inevitably some will leave -- usually those who are motivated and well qualified.
The ones you want to fire will still be there.
No no, you do it quietly and based on numbers. "Likes" is too subjective and will lead to discrimination lawsuits. Start with highest salary, easiest to replace, and/or middle management.
Why not both? As other commenters have said, this is clear collusion by proxy, which should be illegal. There needs to be an increase in supply yes but this should also be illegal.
It is when you oversimplify a complex issue. There might have been a good point were there an absolute shortage of housing, but there isn't. Much of the scarcity in the housing market is wholly artificial, and blaming immigrants or restricting their arrival would have absolutely zero impact on landlords' propensity to extract economic rents without providing any additional value.
>zero impact on landlords' propensity to extract economic rents without providing any additional value.
That isn't what's causing the problem. It's that demand is greater than supply. Rent is lower in rural areas becuase nobody wwnts to live there. Even if rent was free you would have the same problem that there simply isn't enough housing. Immigrants almost invariably live in cities, and they do drive up prices.
While I don't know your intentions behind this comment, I'll add that high immigration is a core policy in places like Canada explicitly so they don't have to solve any problems around labour or financial policy. Skilled immigrants tend to have lots of money to spend and no debt; unskilled immigrants are exploited in schemes where they work below minimum wage at menial jobs (e.g., https://financialpost.com/news/retail-marketing/foreign-work... or https://jacobin.com/2021/12/coffee-chain-fast-food-labor-pay...).
I used to work for a government employment centre. It was depressing how many highly educated people emigrated to Canada for promises of a better life and ended up driving Ubers because they were mislead about earning potential or education equivalency.
Man, even skilled labour… there was a gas station near my old house in Saskatoon. One night I was chatting with the guy that was working and we got to talking about work a bit. Turns out he actually has a Masters in Electrical Engineering, but the easiest way for him to come to Canada was to be sponsored by Petro-Can and work at the gas station for, I don’t recall exactly, 2-3 years. He was looking for volunteer work to do to try to stay sharp in the meantime. Crazy!
I find immigration to be a net negative. Sure some people get a better lot by emigrating, but in the process there is brain deain and such. So instead of them helping their own country to better themselves, their own country gets worse.
and thats why allowing immigration to give them a chance of "a better life" is IMO unethical.
> Sure some people get a better lot by emigrating, but in the process there is brain deain and such. So instead of them helping their own country to better themselves, their own country gets worse.
I've met a lot of smart immigrants who left their country because there was no opportunity for them to contribute or improve. Often there's so much corruption or racial/religious discrimination that it's a choice to sink or swim.
Of course, the prospect of "a better life" even in the most dire circumstances is becoming less attainable when the local population are already struggling. I've seen several articles similar to this one, where the reception from people is "I'm struggling to pay my rent too, why doesn't anyone do a story on that?"
Wow, this is a brazen price collusion. No doubt about it. Using private data to fix prices and asking landlords to keep units vacant rather than decrease rents.
I'm not sure it's so clear. "Using private data" to set prices is hardly nefarious on its own, even if the result is higher prices. After all, "price stickiness" is a well known phenomena in the economics literature (and it can lead to sub-optimal allocation of resources). Maybe this is just a way to make prices less sticky.
On the other hand, if the system recommends keeping units vacant, that does start to suggest that it is enabling landowners to take advantage of monopolistic pricing power. Yet higher vacancy rates could actually be socially optimal as well. A similar phenomena occurs in the movie theater business. Theater owners often price tickets such that the "vacancy" rates (empty seats) are quite high. However, a law that required pricing tickets low enough to fill all seats would reduce the return on equity in the industry so much that investment in the theater industry would plummet, vastly reducing the number of theater seats available available to fill consumer demand in the medium to long term.
Different companies using the same AI for pricing support purposes could easily tip into illegal practices if there is a feedback loop from company to model. That’s just plain old collusion via a middleman.
Lo and behold:
“To arrive at a recommended rent, the software deploys an algorithm — a set of mathematical rules — to analyze a trove of data RealPage gathers from clients, including private information on what nearby competitors charge.”
I’d also add that this is going to fuel the importance of explainability in these systems. Even if your motives are completely fair, not being able to say why the system produced a particular output can look really bad in court. There isn’t an easy way to distinguish “they have no idea how this AI system works” from “they built it to avoid leaving a paper trail”.
> Different companies using the same AI for pricing support purposes could easily tip into illegal practices if there is a feedback loop from company to model.
While there are anti-competitive concerns with this kind of system, one of the points I was trying to make is that a problem requires more than there be simply a 'feedback loop'.
Even in a market with 'perfect' competition, there can be feedback loops: e.g., an individual farmer might price their grain by checking the current market price which is tracked by a third party, and that third party determines the 'current market price' by querying the prices set by all farmers. The reason this isn't necessarily anti-competitive and can be compatible with 'perfect' competition is due to the other characteristics of the market (all participants are price takers, etc), not due to a lack of coordination between producing firms and market analytics firms.
I agree. I was thinking about granularity / specificity but wasn't able to form a coherent train of thought. I'll give it a try.
In my part of the world rents are often very naively indexed, say with CPI or CPI+. That is currently an issue, but usually pretty well functioning. Any individual has no influence on the CPI. So the CPI has a feedback loop, but no characteristic of influence.
In an AI world that characteristic of influence is indeed not clear at first. I can only expect this to be a pretty dark AI considering the 'Great Succes' it is for the owners. I expect it to vacuum data from brokers in order to calculate a "willingness to pay" combined with a "propensity to pay" to calculate individual and portfolio optimal increases.
How is this (/ could this be) collusion? Because the rent increase on property X1, owner Y1 (that is private information, at least I presume for the US rental contracts are 1-on-1 and not public information) is input for all the distributions over properties X and owners Y.
I think your point that other market characteristics have a large impact on collusion (yes / no / degree) is subtle as well.
If the software allows them to take advantage of their supply monopoly, the software is not the problem. It's the lack of competition. Every housing discussion boils down to this: the black/grey stone/star/rock REITs are in this space because local governments have rigged the game to favor them. If the governments start rubber-stamping developer permits, the REITs will get their faces ripped off.
You can't reasonably compare a housing vacancy tax with a hyperbolic straw man argument of a theater. It's not a similar phenomena at all, because it doesn't happen.
I didn't bring up housing vacancy taxes, let alone compare them with anything else. I was making a point about the known limitations of the theory of perfect competition.
>Theater owners often price tickets such that the "vacancy" rates (empty seats) are quite high. However, a law that required pricing tickets low enough to fill all seats would reduce the return on equity in the industry so much that investment in the theater industry would plummet, vastly reducing the number of theater seats available available to fill consumer demand in the medium to long term.
This sounds like a nonsensical economic argument. Do you have a mathematical model that supports this argument?
It's up to the landlord to negotiate based on his individual situation (condition of the unit, demographics, furniture, etc)
Not different from a company asking for "market data" regarding salaries and use that to _guide_ their salary offers to new candidates
In the end the company will adjust their recommendation based on results/feedback from candidates (some companies could be popular/well liked and get away with lower compensation, and vice versa)
Ah yes the efficient market hypothesis in the form of data is why we can all join together and raise rent at 2-3X rate of inflation. Renters don't need half of their income anyways; the landlord can spend it much more efficiently on more investment property.
It’s even worse than that. In an unregulated market, you can always just outbid someone else for a rental. But in a regulated market (with rent control or caps on rents), you can’t do that, and if supply doesn’t match demand, you just go homeless. A socialized market without landlords resembles the latter much more than the former, and having gone through the latter before, I don’t want to live in such a city again without some sort of guaranteed housing from whoever is making me move there.
"You can always outbid someone else for a rental" is both not true and misses the problem that regulation aims to solve.
You can only outbid someone if you have more money than them. The lower on the income scale you are, the less this is an option, until it just stops bring an option at all!
Not to mention, it is drastically unfair and inhumane to consign people to live in the streets simply because they are poor, or simply poorer than the next. Rent control gives a measure of dignity to the poor, and ensures that -- at least a little bit -- when times get hard, we all suffer, the rich renters and the landlords too, not just the poor renters.
Yes, that’s the crux. Either rentals are market or not. If they are market, then you just need money, but if you lack money you are screwed. If they aren’t market, you are screwed even if you have money, unless you can get in on the non-market rent (you probably won’t). Rent control creates a class of winners in place when rent control is initiated, but any poor or rich person that comes to the city after will be outside of that class and have a very hard time finding housing. The very rich will bypass this by just buying, but everyone else experiences extreme illiquidity (including those who can’t leave their non-market rents for a better job elsewhere).
> In an unregulated market, you can always just outbid someone else for a rental
Until you have to actually pay the rent you bid.
> if supply doesn’t match demand, you just go homeless
This is true in both situations. Only in the second case instead of whatever rich asshole wants to move there getting the rental, the people who have lived there for decades already do.
Yes. The second case makes rentals illiquid to the benefit of current residents. But then, why would anyone dare move to a city like that? Again, that’s what I experienced (the inability to find housing) and that’s what I don’t want to experience again.
Now take those decisions en masse: you want a city with a healthy economy, but the city is now stuck since it’s labor resources become illiquid along with its rental market. Now, some people want that, but HN readers (I think?) will be biased towards vibrancy.
A few days ago, someone posted an article about Work Number and how it lets basically any corp pull your current salary.
At the time, I didn't see the harm in allowing it, since I didn't see a situation where this could be used against me.
After reading this article, I froze my data. I believe landlords should price rentals based on the value of their property, not the value of its tenants.
Yeah, I've seen "The Work Number" popping up more and more — usually buried deep inside the company's HR documentation.
I've personally opted out entirely, instead of just going for the freeze. (In their terminology, a "freeze" lets them keep all your data and continue harvesting new data, whereas an "opt out" instructs them to delete all your data entirely.)
Another important detail: At my company (and presumably many others), it's not just your base salary that's sent over to The Work Number. It's also full details about your equity comp.
I've grudgingly disclosed my base salary as needed (leasing applications, etc), and it's easy enough to do without involving The Work Number because most employers are fine with generating an employment-verification letter. But I don't see any reason why the average landlord would need to know about my equity package, so I found that bit especially unsettling.
“The beauty of YieldStar is that it pushes you to go places that you wouldn’t have gone if you weren’t using it,” said Kortney Balas, director of revenue management at JVM Realty"
What she really means, is she would have never imagined sucking every penny out of you, until she got a hold of their software. They get filthy rich, while you need a place to live, and they generate excess profits on false supply and demand models.
Where I live, we have 60% occupancy, but the area is priced beyond anything reasonable. $2500 a month for a studio is nuts. Now we're getting a renters tax from the city. Joy.
Honestly Georgism looks like a perfect fit here. "Market" rent going through the roof like you say, while occupancy stays low? Enjoy paying 1000$+ every month on a vacant flat you're making no money off. I.e.: double-dip pressure for prices to fall and/or occupancy to rise.
Local metro put in a light rail line years ago through an area with the expectation that it would re-invigorate those neighborhoods and cause more housing to be built. For years, there was very little movement; existing rents and land values along the line were too low for anyone to bother building additional dense housing. This failure, among others, became a talking point among those who have tried to stall building additional lines.
Now, with the metro in an acute housing crunch, rents have gone up enough that investors are finally building more housing along the light rail line. What are they building? Small, chic apartments geared towards young people. It's not really the sort of thing that fosters strong communities, as anyone who wants to start a family is unlikely to stay there long term.
There's really only two outcomes I see: housing prices stabilize at marginally affordable at best, or the "character" they are trying to go for disappears not long after the housing bubble pops, and the area becomes blighted.
All of this is to say that there are market-driven price floors on housing that aren't easy to shift. The "just build housing" mantra might be over-estimating the extent to which people are willing to accept prices going down. There's better ways to make money elsewhere for the people you expect to do the building and management after a certain point.
Young people need places to live too. What's wrong with some developers building housing that appeal to that group? As long as they're building more than there was previously, it means less competition for the other housing for those who don't like that style of building.
Could also just be driven because of the zoning. For example a 2-bed unit usually requires two parking spots. So its better to build two 1-bed units. Same amount of parking but more rental income because usually 2-bed units aren’t double the rent of a 1-bed units. Its actually not even a choice because whoever sold the land to the developer will have done this calculation already and priced the land accordingly to the maximum financial payout based on the zoning rules.
We are building a smaller apartment building in Dallas and everything from unit numbers, to sizes and shape of building is driven by the zoning rules. And because the land is sold based on those rules you can’t really make it different otherwise the project isn’t viable anymore. Thats why everyone is currently building townhomes and not small apartments buildings in places like Old East Dallas or Bishop Arts District.
I'm not sure what you mean by "higher on the SES ladder" because the "young renters" in this case are Amazon employees with ridiculous disposable income. They are high on the SES ladder, it's the lower rungs that are getting priced out of the market.
It’s complex. Usually the max price people are willing to pay is mortgage they may get from a bank. So developers who want to push margin can build smaller apartments and still sell for the same price. With fancy marketing how tiny apartments and DINK is cool.
We have same issue in my city. New apartments are 40-50sqm 2 rooms (1 bedroom + kitchen-living room) or 60-70sqm 3 rooms (2 bedrooms + kitchen-living room ) at best. If you want family-sized housing, house in suburbia is pretty much the only option.
Even though most apartments are not built to withstand a screaming child in the neighboring unit, it's not actually that hard to do and it is relatively cheap. Just needs double-drywall and a little caulk.
Right—the problem is not that building apartments that actually support people's needs (beyond the bare minimum) is impossible, it's that it costs more money than the bare minimum to do so.
And if there are no sound-dampening apartments available in a particular area and price range, then the apartments you're trying to rent out not having them isn't a competitive disadvantage, so why bother?
I'm now picturing moving into an apartment and surreptitiously installing an extra layer of drywall. Will the landlord notice the rooms are all 2" smaller?
You could probably get away with it - and in many cases, if you're a renter and offer to make a capital improvement to the property, the landlord will go along with it.
The bigger the landlord is, the harder it could be, but for single family homes, if you're renting and want to add a deck and are willing to pay, talk to your landlord. There are risks (landlord evicts you right after you build it, etc) but those can be mitigated.
I agree it's better as an isolated thing. But there're many caveats with infrastructure. Which is either expensive or you have to deal with it in very creative ways. In both cases city government needs to look out for more than real estate moguls interests...
Now city government acts surprised why developers build so nice tiny apartments, yet suburbia is growing at fast pace. Who could think that if you give out permits for mostly tiny apartments in gigantic apartment blocks, people will find other ways and try to fix the problem in rather anarchistic ways.
I still think that if you build a ton of housing, prices go down. But I've been told by commenters on here that you could build and build and build until your city is stuffed to the gills with empty housing - empty housing that does nothing but drain the owners' bank accounts with property taxes - and still, somehow, prices would relentlessly go up.
Supposedly, the owners of empty properties would rather "charge" a zillion dollars for their "luxury condos" and never actually profit from their property in any way, than ever allow the "value" to go down.
It's a baffling mentality. Housing alone is thought to fly free of supply and demand.
Counties don't want the price of housing to go down because they collect taxes at (typically) 1% of the listed market value, basically collecting rent from residents but in a quite inequitable way.
It seems absurd to me that they'd judge the success of public transit as when the property values go up, rather than whether people are riding it and using it. We should build public transit because it's an improvement on quality of life for the community, not because people who don't live there will see a return on investment.
Housing prices will always be a bubble, as long as they're so detached and distant from the communities they're trying to build.
The people who ride the lines were already getting from point A to point B using other means (cars, busses, taxis), so ridership isn't really a useful metric. Pretty much all of the lines that are being built are being sold as ways to improve the economy along the line, as people are pulled out of cars and off the freeway (i.e. greater visibility of local stores and housing options to commuters).
I-5 craps the bed on a fairly regular basis, particularly on game day at the SODO or UW stadiums (and all bets are off if there are multiple games scheduled for one day). It may be 45 minutes to SeaTac on light rail, but it is always 45 minutes on light rail, whereas travel times on I-5 can vary widely depending on congestion, accidents, etc.
Some trips are much faster. The Capitol Hill extension was wildly popular, because pre-opening the surface traffic could easily take 20-40 minutes from Capitol Hill to either downtown or UW. Now, it's five minutes to either, and the surface traffic has also adjusted accordingly somewhat since less people are congesting the roads with cars and rideshares.
In general the highway network in the area is super fragile because there are only 4 major highways in the area (I-5, 520, I-405, I-90) and few parallel arterials. I suspect that East Link will also become wildly popular, as will the northern and southern extensions, because of predictable travel times. Already many people take the buses that get stuck in traffic that these light rail lines will replace. And it will also help alleviate the issues with the commuter buses, such as there not being enough bus drivers to operate the scheduled services.
The light rail isn't perfect, but few things are. Modern metro construction in the US has mostly gone sideways worse than light rail systems.
Rent increase has been one of the biggest contributor to core inflation [0]. That has caused fed to raised interest rate at a rapid clip and cause the market crash. So is an algorithm responsible for the blood on wall st?
> A landlord can only get the amount of rent that a tenant is willing to pay.
A place to live is a rather inelastic commodity. If the price goes up across the board, people will pay, until they can't possibly afford the going rent and are driven into homelessness.
> this service is not responsible for higher rents, the market is.
This service has effectively cornered the market, and is manipulating the market through shortages, driving rents higher.
> A place to live is a rather inelastic commodity.
People always say this when prices are going up. Then prices go down, like in 2008.
The thing is, it is elastic. For example, people get roommates to split the rent. They get larger or smaller places based on their willingness to pay. More convenient or less convenient. More or less amenities.
Here’s what that looks like on the history: 2008 caused a brief flattening but it’s clear why people are talking about rent going up because that’s what it has overwhelmingly done.
Yup. Everyone claimed it wasn’t supply and demand, but as soon as Covid and WFH hit (and people could live anywhere), rents dropped fast in SF, probably ~20% in 6 months.
Oh, no argument - but for how long relative to the time they have been going up? I wouldn’t say they never go down but there’s been a pronounced trend for ages. I bought a house relatively early (thanks dotcom bubble!) and was constantly reminded of how much extra income I had relative to my friends who were renting, and that really adds up over the decades where people in decent jobs were struggling to amass down payments.
> Bottom line is that this service is not responsible for higher rents, the market is.
This service is directly and indirectly responsible for landlord's increasing rent for their tenants. Blaming "the market" is a convenient way to cast blame away from people responsible onto a nebulous concept.
Companies like Zillow use software based on "the market" to determine housing prices. But for all intents and purposes they are responsible for driving up housing prices based on actions informed by their software, because their actions directly influence "the market".
This is what so many "free market" hawks tend to misunderstand. The market is not an acyclic network, but is still strongly ordered in its power imbalance.
'The world is in greater peril from those who tolerate or encourage evil than from those who actually commit it.' -Albert Einstein
Most of them understand it just fine. They just don't care as long as it benefits them in the short term. Sure, you could talk about the long term unsustainability, but they quite reasonably figure that they'll be better positioned over the long term by virtue of having a lot more money.
If the "free market" isn't good enough for you here, what are you suggesting is the solution? Banning software that analyzes market data if the output may result in pricing adjustments?
There isn’t a single “free market” and this one isn’t particularly free since there’s hefty information asymmetry and buyers typically have much lower negotiating power (you must have somewhere to live this month; a landlord can often leave a place idle for months holding out for a higher offer, especially if AirBnB is an option).
Mainstream economic consensus for ages has been that markets need some regulation to work most effectively and that’s especially true for a basic human need like housing which controls how healthy the overall community is.
Some obvious things to regulate here could be mandatory disclosure of sources used to justify increases, annual rate caps, requiring amounts over a certain threshold to be itemized and temporary (i.e. if the building includes heat & oil costs spiked require the owner to show that the price they actually paid went up & don’t raise the rent permanently since it’ll come back down).
> a landlord can often leave a place idle for months holding out for a higher offer, especially if AirBnB is an option
I guess they can, but they are running a business and their goal is to make money, so they'll eventually take what they can get.
And remember it works both ways. It doesn't seem like it now, but sometimes, in some markets, it's hard for landlords to attract tenants. I have serious doubts that regulation or any other form of intervention on pricing would have anything but unintended consequences, in some cases leading to the exact problem you're trying to prevent:
> I guess they can, but they are running a business and their goal is to make money, so they'll eventually take what they can get.
Oh, sure but the point is just that the market dynamics favor sellers pretty strongly. For example, how much does the hassle of moving or leaving a neighborhood deter the kind of negotiation which would normally be key to keeping a market stable?
Note also that regulation doesn’t need to directly control pricing to make a difference. Since information asymmetry is a lot of the problem here, increased transparency could help improve the situation and give people better negotiating positions (e.g. if a building owner is profitable at 30% less than asking for all of the current leases, you can probably negotiate better with that information than if you don’t have it)
Yes, informed. The output of this software, and Zillow's algorithms, is only information that still needs to be applied to the real world ("the market"). The algorithms just provide information that wasn't as easy to access before.
It's like saying that Google is responsible for higher rents/prices because it allows landlords/homeowners to easily access and analyze market data. I don't think so.
> Yes, informed. The output of this software, and Zillow's algorithms, is only information that still needs to be applied to the real world ("the market"). The algorithms just provide information that wasn't as easy to access before.
Who verifies that the algorithm is correct? Who is culpable if the algorithm is flawed or applied incorrectly? If GreyStar or Zillow realized their algorithms were significantly inflating values, would there be any incentive to correct it without regulation?
> It's like saying that Google is responsible for higher rents/prices because it allows landlords/homeowners to easily access and analyze market data. I don't think so.
Except that information isn't readily available and easily accessible on Google (in many jurisdictios). It's locked away behind pricey subscriptions to vendor products. In the case of YieldStar it means that tenants cannot fairly negotiate because they don't know what a reasonable price is.
You're not going to like this answer, but...the market does.
The point is that no software has to power to force tenants to pay higher than market rents.
edit to add:
> In the case of YieldStar it means that tenants cannot fairly negotiate because they don't know what a reasonable price is.
If that's the case, then the landlords could save the money they're spending on YieldStar and just set the high prices already. They could use their own proprietary "I want more money" algorithm, and the tenant would have no choice but to pay whatever number the landlord popped out of their head.
> If that's the case, then the landlords could save the money they're spending on YieldStar and just set the high prices already. They could use their own proprietary "I want more money" algorithm, and the tenant would have no choice but to pay whatever number the landlord popped out of their head.
Now you're getting it.
They could do this, but if their number is higher than other owner numbers in their area, they lose.
If it's the same as other numbers in their area, they win.
So they need something to coordinate those numbers. A 3rd party, for example.
And thus we arrive at why people call it collusion via a 3rd party.
> You're not going to like this answer, but...the market does.
In other words, nobody is culpable and the people with money and resources are able to exploit those below them with impunity.
> The point is that no software has to power to force tenants to pay higher than market rents.
Sure it does.
Having a roof over your head is a fundamental need and people are willing to do a lot to avoid homelessness. If your landlord says to you "rent is going up $500 a month" and you're already struggling financially, uprooting your family is a serious personal and financial hardship many people try to avoid, even if that means giving up basic luxuries.
Not to mention that corporate landlords can absolutely abuse their power to drive prices across an area. We aren't just talking about individual landlords — though even individuals can still own dozens of properties.
If I have a friend that owns a rental property, and I tell her: "you're only charging $1k for rent? you could get $2k easily". Am I helping her exploit her tenant? Now what if she owns 10 rentals? 1,000? 10,000?
I think we probably just need to agree to disagree that this is a form of exploitation.
Now if there is actual price fixing or collusion going on, that's another matter.
> If I have a friend that owns a rental property, and I tell her: "you're only charging $1k for rent? you could get $2k easily". Am I helping her exploit her tenant? Now what if she owns 10 rentals? 1,000? 10,000?
> ...
> Now if there is actual price fixing or collusion going on, that's another matter.
If your friend owns 10,000 rentals and sets prices unilaterally, thats blatantly anti-consumer if not monopolistic. Shelter is a basic need and people will pay as much as they can to keep a roof over their heads, until they reach the breaking point.
If you have several friends that control a sizable amount of the housing supply in an area and they agree to charge a certain amount and artificially limit the availabile supply, that seems like price fixing to me. Doesn't matter if you have three friends or three hundred friends.
) When competitors collude, prices are inflated and the customer is cheated.
> If your friend owns 10,000 rentals and sets prices unilaterally, thats blatantly anti-consumer if not monopolistic.
In my example, the friend is only "fixing" the rent in the sense that it was broken (artificially low) before. I didn't say she controlled the entire supply of housing in the area, and I didn't say she was setting rents artificially high. I don't see a crime.
For some reason you're assuming that anytime rent is raised it's a violation of the tenant's rights.
> In my example, the friend is only "fixing" the rent in the sense that it was broken (artificially low) before ... For some reason you're assuming that anytime rent is raised it's a violation of the tenant's rights.
Artificially low according to what metric — that people are only paying 30-50% of their income towards housing? People are willing to pay a lot for housing because they often have to. I consider it highly unethical to frame squeezing as much money out of people for shelter as "[taking] away the tenant's ability to exploit an inefficiency in market pricing." Inequality, reliance on food shelters, and homelessness were already bad enough before 2020 and have only gotten significantly worse.
Not to mention that many people who would have been able to purchase homes are unable to do so because of large capital groups or investors purchasing large swathes of homes, significantly driving up the costs, and then renting out that supply at inflated rates or converting them to short-term rentals. It benefits no one except those who are already wealthy.
> I didn't say she controlled the entire supply of housing in the area, and I didn't say she was setting rents artificially high.
In fairness you provided 1,000 and 10,000 as examples of the number of rentals she might own.
Regardless, 1k to 2k is a significant jump in rent and there's likely important context beyond the numbers. A real world example I'm familiar with is people moving from a big city to a small town. Is it unethical or criminal for the rent to jump from 1k to 2k if people are willing to pay for it? Not necessarily. But doing so tends to price out people who actually grew up in that town, especially people with lower or fixed incomes, leading to a strain on social systems and homelessness.
> I consider it highly unethical to frame squeezing as much money out of people for shelter as "[taking] away the tenant's ability to exploit an inefficiency in market pricing"
Maybe I shouldn't have used the word exploit. I didn't mean that the tenant is cheating the landlord, I just meant that there is an inefficiency in the market and the tenant is able to use it to their advantage.
Rents, like house prices, do have a fair market value. Buyers and sellers are constantly engaging in negotiations every day in order to set prices on the whole. If software helps the buyer or seller negotiate more effectively, that's fine by me.
I don't disagree with you that it's become much more difficult for people to afford housing and other necessities. It's a huge problem. And I think you're on the right track when you mention large investors buying investment property. I wouldn't be opposed to limiting foreign investment. Crossing my fingers that with rates finally rising, housing/rental investment becomes less attractive and the market comes back down to earth and rents come down with it.
> Maybe I shouldn't have used the word exploit. I didn't mean that the tenant is cheating the landlord, I just meant that there is an inefficiency in the market and the tenant is able to use it to their advantage.
And that's a fair point — I just think that "the market" tends to be a harmful concept for basic needs like housing, especially when there are controlling interests whose sole motivation is to maximize profit. I have an inherent distrust of software (https://xkcd.com/2030/), and the fact that programs like YieldStar rely on proprietary formulations and non-public data (or at least data that isn't possible for the average person to reasonably acquire on their own) means you are trusting them to provide a fair valuation when there's a bit of a conflict of interest for them not to. "The market" has been a pretty poor regulatory of corporate malfeasance.
Short-term profit is usually at the cost of longevity. In the case of housing, there is a difficult to quantify 'human cost'. People are generally healthier, more productive, and contribute more to their local economy when they aren't stressed and experiencing financial hardship.
But I digress. I think we both understand each other, agree on a few things, and disagree on others.
> And I think you're on the right track when you mention large investors buying investment property.
Rates rising has definitely cooled the market in my city, albeit prices are still at least 100k over where they were even a year ago. I worry though that the recession we may or may not already be in will simply be an opportunity for big players to swoop in and buy even more supply.
I don't really see things improving without significant changes to things like zoning laws, short-term rentals, and limiting mass-ownership of property (so new supply actually goes to buyers and not speculators).
> I didn't say she controlled the entire supply of housing in the area
Actually, it was you who introduced the idea that she owned 10,000 rentals. Please don't insult people's intelligence by suggesting that 10,000 rental units in a market is too small to affect overall pricing.
> If I have a friend that owns a rental property, and I tell her: "you're only charging $1k for rent? you could get $2k easily". Am I helping her exploit her tenant? Now what if she owns 10 rentals? 1,000? 10,000?
Since you clearly read the article and have shown awareness of the issues in your other comments prior to this one, offering such simplistic arguments smacks of disingenuity. Good discussions happen when you lead with your best arguments, not a string of weak ones designed to exhaust your interlocutor.
> Since the market is inelastic, and landlords can charge whatever they want, make it 10x.
They'll get there, slowly and steadily.
You obviously cannot snap your finger and raise the rent 10x in an instant. You have to boil the frog slowly, by continuously buying up properties and raise rents considerably every year, especially for new tenants. In my city the overwhelming majority of residential apartments are owned by a single private company.
> Is your point that Supply & Demand are actually in play?
I never claimed they weren't. However, there are a significant number of external factors that you refuse to acknowledge, like government regulations specifically enacted to protect tenants from this type of exploitation.
You initially said "why not just raise the price 2x or 3x!", when I pointed out that this was happening you moved the goal posts to "why not raise the price 10x!" I am not interested in engaging with snide 'gotcha!' games.
richbell> Blaming "the market" is a convenient way to cast blame away from people responsible onto a nebulous concept.
That sounds like a rejection of Supply & Demand forces.
> However, there are a significant number of external factors that you refuse to acknowledge, like government regulations specifically enacted to protect tenants from this type of exploitation.
All that does is make for higher rents and lower supply.
I think you’re missing the point. Let me try this: there’s a tipping point where you have 50% occupancy and charge $x0,000 for 500 sq ft and make just as much money as you would at 100% occupancy with a charge of $x000. The difference between these two is in the latter scenario, some people have no place to live because they can’t afford the $x0,000. The owner corporation doesn’t care, they make just as much money either way.
> Airlines discount tickets at the last minute. That's because flying an empty seat around doesn't make any money.
> Magazines sell ad space at a steep discount the day before it goes to press. Same reason.
> Stores have clearance sales. Again, same reason.
You did not acknowledge or address KerrAvon's point at all.
> And so on. No landlord in his right mind would leave half a building vacant if he can get a paying tenant in.
Of course they would, and both KerrAvon and TFA explain why:
) The company had been seeking occupancy levels of 97% or 98% in markets where it was a leader, Winn said. But when it began using YieldStar, managers saw that raising rents and leaving some apartments vacant made more money.
) “Initially, it was very hard for executives to accept that they could operate at 94% or 96% and achieve a higher NOI by increasing rents,” Winn said on the call, referring to net operating income. The company “began utilizing RealPage to operate at 95%, while seeing revenue increases of 3% to 4%.”
Plenty of companies avoid large sales or clearances as a policy because it damages their ability to sell at inflated rates.
It’s true, but it’s not like other markets where someone can choose not to buy and additional sellers can come in, to make sure that prices are in some ways tied to costs. Here, everybody has to live somewhere, so by default you have a “naked short” position on housing. Efficient price discovery here is performing a short squeeze and finding the point of “maximum you can afford to pay without going broke”, which is only possible to reach with price collusion.
True, but that’s the interesting thing about these kinds of algorithms, they align the pricing approaches so the entities act more like one than they did before, effectively decreasing competition.
I would say that pricing approaches are already aligned, and this software is just another approach that may or may not replace existing approaches in some areas. I don't see how this decreases competition, tough. A competitor can still undercut their competition to attract tenants.
So the ever nebulous market is the problem. What regulation do we advocate to stop these bottom feeders from hurting the entire US economy? Rent control doesn't seem adequate and causes other problems. I honestly don't know the answer but people making massive profits on rent seems like a major inefficiency and inequality problem.
Sure thats part of the problem, but its convenient to lay this as generic government interference when we know its usually the real estate owners who collude or make up parts of local government to achieve this interference. Stopping this regulatory capture seems to be a prerequisite for most good social change.
which part of the multi-hundred laws, regulations, taxes and discretionary decision making is "interference" and which part is.. you know, having government with laws? I suggest that the implication here is that a local feudal lord is the correct form of governance.. it was for a thousand years.. that's what you imply, really
Interference is things like preventing new construction. Other things are unreasonable burdens local government tends to put on landlords, which always result in higher rents.
For example, in Seattle, the landlord cannot charge a tenant for damage to the unit if the damage is the result of domestic violence.
Increased profits gaming the public impression of inflation play a huge role. See the FRED chart above. Profits increased 1 trillion since 2020, thats something like 3300 dollars per capita.
This is mostly a distraction from the underlying issue. The algorithm helps sellers to maximize prices given the supply & demand so, yes, this probably is responsible for a few percentage points of increase in price, in the same way that price comparison websites are responsible for a small decrease in the price of car rentals.
But the underlying problem here is the supply & demand! Rentals are competitive, an algorithm can't force people to pay more than an comparable rental property is charging.
It's the lack of housing supply in areas like SF is responsible for rents being a multiple of what they could be.
Developers want to build apartments, but are prevented from doing so by local regulations. So we need to change those regulations or, as is increasingly happening in the last couple of California's legislative sessions, take control away from local authorities (e.g. SF Board of Supervisors).
The supply&demand issue does not turn what this company is doing into a "distraction", quite the opposite. Their "algorithm" has an outsize influence on the prices precisely because of the underlying housing crisis.
I put algorithm in quotes, because it's clearly just a facade in front of good ol' fashioned price collusion.
As the example in the article points out, replace the word "algorithm" with "a guy named Bob" and suddenly it doesn't sound so innocent to say: The companies controlling 90% of apartments in a neighborhood give all their data to Bob, and then Bob tells each one what to price their apartments. It's price collusion by proxy, pure and simple.
We shouldn't just ignore it because it's not the biggest cause of the price increases.
Yes, we absolutely need to tackle the housing supply problem, but at the same time we need to stop companies like this from exploiting the crisis and driving prices up even further.
> As the example in the article points out, replace the word "algorithm" with "a guy named Bob" and suddenly it doesn't sound so innocent....
And there's your gig-workforce and companies like Uber that figured out that replacing blatantly illegal stuff with "AlgOriThMS" somehow takes governments long times to untwine and figure out that they're illegal shills.
But the in-person businesses can't do such tactics. But some venture capital financed outlet can dump hundreds of scooters on public areas, and socialize their costs and privatize their gains.
And yes, the article shows that this is collusion through a third party. I don't give a shit if it's an 'algorithm', Bob, or a tarot reading. It's collusion, and anyone involved needs to suffer.. up to and including being awarded the apartment/house.
But, we know the worst that'll happen is some lawyers will get millions, and the plebes will get a check for $100 off their rent at participating renters.
The article notes that the software encourages landlords to maximize profitability by raising rents and reducing supply.
> RealPage claims its software will increase revenue and decrease vacancies. But at times the company has appeared to urge apartment owners and managers to reduce supply while increasing price.
Not if the RICO act was used against them, and all rental properties are transferred to the renter in payment for fraud, conspiracy, interstate fraud, etc
Do you honestly think any other property owner would touch companies like this if this one popped like that?
Oh look, the DOJ Antitrust Division uses fraud/false statements laws "to fight illegal activities that arise from conduct accompanying antitrust violations..."[1]. To me this company looks like a $10.2B bet on prosecutorial discretion. Remarkable.
> Ending the crisis by creating housing supply is the way to stop exploiting the crisis.
> If you stop "this one company" you'll just have someone else making profits and still have people homeless.
And this new homes will be bought by ordinary people who for years paid inflated rents and have no real liquidity or corporations/landlords who have profited by renting and have more than enough cash to absorb any new properties that would become available on the market? Because grabbing them allows for a virtual monopoly on home ownership so people are forced to rent. And we have another cycle of capitalism.
> But the underlying problem here is the supply & demand!
This is the answer to most pop-Econ articles. It’s amazing how hard people want to believe that something else is to blame or that traditional economics doesn’t apply for some reason. Algorithms are a popular outrage-bait right now, so I’m not too surprised to see “the algorithm” blamed for high rents now, too.
Because supply and demand itself is ridiculously broad. I don't even see people claim it isn't S&D given so many say anything from "build more housing" to "slackers go earn more money / save more", but saying supply & demand is the underlying problem is about as useful as saying the needle is in the haystack.
The problem isn't "the algorithm," the article is exceedingly clear that the problem is "the company" and "the captured market" but mostly collusion by proxy.
But in this case, it's also the algorithm -- the article has multiple quotes where "empathy" is seen as a problem and that getting humans out of the loop is a boon to profit. The algorithm itself isn't the problem, it's the bloody-minded profit-seeking where capitalists leverage trust in the algorithm to extract maximum rents by leaving properties vacant in the midst of a housing crunch.
Leaving properties vacant is an absolute killer to revenue. I’m reading a lot of people in this discussion cite that property managers are comfortable with vacant units because of all the extra money they’re making off of raising the rents, but you’d need to raise them an incredible amount to justify even a single month of vacancy. Normally 5% is reasonable, but if that number slides it really kills profits.
I guess what I’m saying is that the incentives are aligned here: property managers want to see units occupied, and so does everyone else.
Will they lower prices until 100% occupancy? No, there needs to be some unoccupied units or there would be no liquidity in the market (if there are no houses to rent and you want to move to a city, how could you move?).
> I guess what I’m saying is that the incentives are aligned here: property managers want to see units occupied, and so does everyone else.
It sounds like you're using the intuition of a person who hasn't captured a major portion of the rental market. You're going so far as telling me that property managers wouldn't do what the people involved with the company say they're doing. Needless to say, I'm not convinced.
Oh yes. Media often lament people radicalizing online supposedly because of them. But nobody is forced to follow recommendations, which are moreover labelled as such. People stay logged-in and indulge on them, and that's it.
And likewise, it seems silly to blame heroin for people being driven to use it. Heroin ain't exactly a recreational drug; people turn to it because they're in extreme suffering, be it physical (due to health issues) or mental/emotional (due to socioeconomic hardship), and need an escape. Addressing those concerns would address heroin use (and swaths of other issues, like violent crime).
The “it’s all just supply and demand” argument is overly simplistic and strikes me as coming from people who have taken first-year Econ, if that, and literally nothing else.
Does supply and demand affect housing prices? Yes, and the fact that supply has been constrained is affecting prices.
Is it the only factor? Probably not.
Even basic economics classes will teach that there are several ways that supply and demand breaks down.
For one, if there are imbalanced implications for both the supply and demand parties. For a landlord, rent is a purely economic transaction. Not taking a tenant means losing money. For a renter, not having a place to live is far more damaging. You lose shelter, safety, social standing, etc. The article touches on leaving an apartment empty for a couple months to find a tenant that will pay what you’re asking. But would anyone really go homeless for a couple months to save on rent? Not only that, but peoples lives revolves around where they live, and it’s not easy for a lot of people just to pick up and move to a different market.
Another way supply and demand might break down is if there is price collusion between parties on the supply side. This is relevant especially in this case because if there is a single party setting prices (eg the algorithm) and there is a constrained enough market, then you can in fact force people more than what typical supply and demand would imply.
Have you ever looked at how long it takes to get a building permit in one of those high-rent areas? Years, if you get it. And millions of dollars in plans, approvals and preparations. God forbid if you must involve some union people.
We’ve outlawed construction. Any other factor besides this is far far behind.
> Any other factor besides this is far far behind.
Ok based on what? Like I think there are supply problems, but there are plenty of examples where the demand isn’t increasing much or is even decreasing but housing is still getting more expensive.
2011-2015 SF jobs increased 23% and housing increased 3% [0]. During this time, my own rent increased about 10% per year.
California legislature is passing some housing good laws, but the state's attorney is not enforcing them. The non-profit CaRLA is doing the enforcement and having success [1]. Their wins in court have set precedent and unblocked a lot of building permits.
I very much agree with you that the lack of supply is a major problem, but the article is making a case here that what the algorithm is doing is tantamount to price-fixing / collusion. Even in markets where supply is much easier to come by than housing and does not have the entrenched political dysfunction restricting supply - such as RAM chips and canned tuna - price-fixing is a problem.
There's an analogy in the article to airplane seat pricing. The solution there was to tell the airlines they couldn't collude with each other, not to say "The real problem is the lack of flight supply."
But I don't see any actual evidence that collusion is happening. Collusion is difficult to pull off! It requires each owner to restrict their supply so that all owners benefit through higher prices. The incentive for an individual owner is to "defect" by renting out their whole supply. Collusion generally requires participants to be able to monitor and enforce each other's behavior.
To the extent that owners are increasing prices slightly to benefit themselves, that's not collusion, that's just the market clearing.
I mostly agree, but they're actively pushing rental property owners to let units sit empty for extended periods of time while they wait for higher prices. There are a shocking number of high end apartments in cities like SF and NYC that are sitting empty while everyone else is struggling to find an affordable place to live.
They sit empty because an empty apartment is still going up in value.
If you rent it out, there will be wear and tear (ie. after 5 years it'll need a full refurb), and you run the risk of having tenants stuck in your property if laws change and suddenly you aren't allowed to evict them.
Often the capital appreciation is so much greater in value than the rental income (after management, maintenance, etc) that it isn't worth risking the capital income for a tiny bit of rental income.
The supply is being restricted, even among existing buildings. It's trivially true that more buildings will reduce the price, but you'd need to build many more than would be otherwise necessary to bring a significant price decrease because they will continue to restrict the supply by letting existing units sit vacant.
In other words, building more properties isn't the main problem here.
More supply is the answer, though. Possibly along with land value tax or vacancy rules. Eg, in Germany if an apartment is owned by a company as opposed to a private person, it is not allowed to stay vacant for no good reason.
Cashflow is the lifeblood of a business. The era of cheap money is over. If a company wants to sit on their real estate while other companies are building and filling up their units, they can do so at their own peril. If you haven't noticed with the markets' movements, unrealized gains aren't worth anything.
This is where I think inflation and higher rates will be good for the US.
The ridiculously low cost of holding assets are making it too cheap to hold and do nothing. Tax policy is a big part of this, but won’t change for many years.
Being shocked by empty apartments on the rental market is like being shocked by stocked shelves in a grocery store in my view. Do you think a market without inventory is better somehow?
It's not "empty inventory" it's just inventory. Rental market deals in empty apartments, nobody rents apartments with tenants inside. If there had not been empty apartments nobody would be able to move and any freed apartment would be snatched at much higher price than you observe now. Even when the inventory simply drops (the number of empty rentals decreases but still above zero) you see things like dozens of people on the same showing, forced to apply immediately.
Most cities don't count apartments that are vacant less than x months as a vacancy, specifically because of what you're describing. Yes, apartments need to be empty, and folks move out and new folks move in, that usually happens within a couple months of the units being vacant. Some percentage of vacancy is also a healthy stat for a city, because it shows they're keeping up with growth.
The issue here is that there are units being held as vacant for long periods of time, in a saturated market, to drive prices up, and a central algorithm is being used by a large percentage of the market, that allows them to do this in a coordinated manner.
This is effectively textbook collusion, obfuscated by technology. People should be losing their real estate licenses over this, and honestly, folks should be reporting any company using this service to the real estate commission in their state for collusion, because this is normally something real estate commissions take seriously.
>The issue here is that there are units being held as vacant for long periods of time
Can you define the "long period" or point somewhere in the article or other source where this is described?
>This is effectively textbook collusion, obfuscated by technology.
I probably did not read the same text books you read. Do the house sellers who hire the same appraiser also collude in your text book? What about people who use Zillow's or Redfin estimates?
To give some context, I was a real estate agent in Louisiana, working as a property manager, for some time.
> Can you define the "long period" or point somewhere in the article or other source where this is described?
The article mentions that landlords are using the software to run at lower occupancy rates to increase revenue. One specific landlord was mentioning an occupancy rate as low as 95% on 50,000 units (which is quite low). Landlords don't base occupancy rates on short-term vacancies.
> I probably did not read the same text books you read.
The article describes a service that takes private pricing data from numerous competitors, then gives all the competitors pricing and occupancy recommendations as a means of maximizing revenue. There's a good quote in the article about replacing the word algorithm, with a "guy named Bob". If a person was doing this, it would obviously be collusion, because it's a practice that is already illegal, essentially everywhere.
In real estate school, they were pretty explicit about not even walking the edges of collusion; for instance, simply saying "we only price our commissions at 3%" in a room with other brokers could be considered collusion.
> Do the house sellers who hire the same appraiser also collude in your text book? What about people who use Zillow's or Redfin estimates?
An appraiser sets prices based on factors like recent sales in the neighborhood of similar properties and property sizes, age/condition of the house, etc. Everyone can use the same appraiser because that appraiser isn't doing any coordination across the sellers. Two different appraisers, for the most point, should be setting very similar prices.
It could very well be collusion is every broker was using Zillow or Redfins estimate's, especially if they were giving recommendations on holding properties off the market in a coordinated way to maximize profits.
According to this https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRVRUSQ156N the rental occupancy rate has never been over 95% since 1960, which makes me doubt everything you say afterwards. At best you believe your local market is representative of the whole country. Also "collusion" as you were taught is wrong, there is literally no collusion here. Collusion requires agreement, only agreement here is between a market research firm and a landlord.
You're comparing the rental occupancy rate for the entire country to a specific market? That doesn't make any sense. SF (and another of other cities) is in a housing market crisis, whereas detroit (and another of other cities) has extremely high amounts of vacancy. Obviously you have to consider this market by market.
This product is being used to maximize revenue in specific markets, by telling landlords to hold apartments vacant by listing them at higher than market prices. By doing that across the market, they artificially increase scarcity, which forces people to rent those apartments at inflated prices. That's collusion by proxy, because you have a single actor that's coordinating actions.
It's collusion because all of these companies are sharing their private pricing data with a central entity, who's using that private data to provide coordinated actions.
Seeing how the market is not specified in the article it's rational to compare to the the national average. But if you have the data for the market where the unnamed company from the article operates I am all ears. Your claim was that 95% "is quite low" even though it's higher than the national average.
> By doing that across the market, they artificially increase scarcity, which forces people to rent those apartments at inflated prices.
Yes, this is how the product works, it tells the price that will maximize the revenue.
>That's collusion by proxy
There is no such thing. If the agreement on prices exists then it's just collusion, if it does not - there is no collusion. Price fixing, which I suppose you mean by collusion is outlawed. Following market trends is not. The agreement on prices is the key element, without it there is no collusion. Nobody is coordinating anything, there is no agreement to set prices according to the marketing data. This is why stock advisors, appraisers, reports and any other pricing sources are not "collusion by proxy" since they are missing the collusion per se.
> Seeing how the market is not specified in the article it's rational to compare to the the national average. But if you have the data for the market where the unnamed company from the article operates I am all ears. Your claim was that 95% "is quite low" even though it's higher than the national average.
The national average is going to be lower than cities with housing crisis, because the country is large, and it's skewed by areas that are effectively ghost towns. My friends in New Orleans have had a 100% occupancy rate since the last major hurricane.
> There is no such thing. If the agreement on prices exists then it's just collusion, if it does not - there is no collusion. Price fixing, which I suppose you mean by collusion is outlawed. Following market trends is not. The agreement on prices is the key element, without it there is no collusion. Nobody is coordinating anything, there is no agreement to set prices according to the marketing data. This is why stock advisors, appraisers, reports and any other pricing sources are not "collusion by proxy" since they are missing the collusion per se.
I'm assuming you don't have a real estate license, because there are specific national laws (and often stricter state-level laws) related to collusion, and they differ and are considerably stricter than price fixing laws.
>The national average is going to be lower than cities with housing crisis,
How do you know the unnamed company in the article is in a city witch such a crisis? To me it appears there was not enough demand so it had to discount its rents by a lot to get to the target 97%-98% occupancy and thus lost revenue.
And yes, I don't have a real estate license in Louisiana, so can you please name the specific laws you had in mind?
> To me it appears there was not enough demand so it had to discount its rents by a lot to get to the target 97%-98% occupancy and thus lost revenue.
This quote is specifically from a company that had 50k units, normally ran with 100% occupancy, did some trials with the pricing company, which showed they could increase revenue by running at an occupancy of 98%, and has now pushed that lower to 95%. By lowering their occupancy rate, they're increasing housing pressure, which forces renters to accept their higher rates.
> And yes, I don't have a real estate license in Louisiana, so can you please name the specific laws you had in mind?
You don't have one at all, or you'd know the laws. Based on your responses I can tell you didn't read the article, and aren't debating in good faith, so I don't plan on continuing this.
I see. You won't tell the laws that define "collusion by proxy", somehow I expected this. I'd imagine a real lawyer (or a hundred of them) and not a real estate agent from Louisiana and other redditros would be all over these deep-pocketed companies if they had been in such a text book violation.
Density is better for the environment as others mentioned. It is the opposite of enforced, currently mostly prevented.
Answering your question with another question. Why stop there? What you are ultimately arguing for is population-growth control. Turns out very few people are interested in the government deciding how many children they can have.
Population growth control is also utterly pointless, it turns out that having babies is a lot of work and if given the opportunity most people don't have 6 of them. Rich countries that don't have a shrinking population do only so because of immigration.
The US population that has lived here 3 generations or more is shrinking, and thus trend also applies to Europe and Japan. Even China is looking at a future population decrease. Turns out these forced population decreases are not necessary.
This is something I do not get. In my opinion renting a flat should be a more efficient form of living than owning a house and yet economically(&long-term) renting is often the worse option.
If you fully account for everything, renting doesn’t always lose - it’s just we’ve had absurd appreciation for so long.
Once you account for maintenance items owning becomes decently more expensive than a simple “mortgage + utilities + insurance + taxes” calculation shows. A $10k furnace every 25 years adds something like $40 a month and that’s only one of the many wear items there are.
There are other non-tangible benefits to ownership, of course.
There's (mostly) a distinction between single family homes and condos (though high-end condos can have significant costs even if shared as well in addition to condo fees). But, yes, something on the order of hundreds of dollars per month should probably be budgeted to keep a single family house in steady state over a significant period of time.
> A $10k furnace every 25 years adds something like $40 a month and that’s only one of the many wear items there are.
Right, but remember that if you are a renter, the landlord is passing those $40 to you bundled in the rent (along with all other future maintenance projections). There's no free ride, the renter is paying for all of it plus profit margin to the landlord.
You can sometimes get lucky as a renter by finding a small-time incompetent landlord who doesn't price these future maintanence costs into the rent, but that's not the norm.
The reality is in many cases the 'profit' margin is negative! There's many many stories of owners that quit the situation in disgust and fear of how bad it is financially, due to running costs. A bad year of maintenance, a bad tenant, can cause big losses in a business where margins are usually slim for the first decade of ownership.
If an investment house was a business, it often takes a decade to see substantial returns, sometimes after many years of hard slog and even losses. Would you accept that from the businesses that hacker news dreams of?
Yeah, it's fun to hate on landlords but often they're not making much outside of appreciation - or they're basing their profit on renting a house today purchased ten or twenty years ago (which would be better to sell and do something else with the money, often).
I think the fundamental issue is that the whole renting market is buying long and selling short (buy a dwelling for a long period, rent it for short periods) and that causes issues on one or another direction (either you rent for what appears "too much" because you need to build reserves, or you rent for what appears "fair" and the first major expense kills the landlord).
I don't really understand how renting could ever be more efficient. Landlords wouldn't rent out houses as a profession if they couldn't make money doing it. That money comes from renters paying more than the cost of home ownership by definition.
There's plenty of supply - I don't doubt even the state of CA has more actual housing available than strictly necessary for all those currently living there, but it's natural for people to want to live in areas that are a) close to family and friends b) provide access to employment and c) have necessary infrastructure/ services/retail options readily available. All those factors contribute to making densely populated areas desirable - unless you can provide transportation infrastructure that enables millions of people to efficiently transit long distances - and just about the only countries that have achieved that are those with very high population densities anyway!
But there are definitely other factors that exacerbate cost-of-housing issues - income disparities that are further magnified by the degree to which banks are prepared to lend money being one that's rarely discussed. If someone earning $200k a year is able to afford to spend up to 5 times more on a house - and by extension the land it's on - than someone earning half that (and quite possibly 10 times more than someone earning 50k), then how can that not have a serious impact on housing affordability, which trickles down to rental affordability, as enough rent needs to be charged to help offset mortgage costs for landlords.
I believe SF would need way more central planning and not less if we want more housing supply. The transportation issue in SF is crazy at the moment and parking is expensive in both time and money.
A city needs to upgrade multiple infrastructural elements simultaneously if it wants to make a successful leap into higher densities. In a democratic culture this means getting enough parties on board to accept a big jump in taxes for huge civic works projects like subways. To make all of this coherent this will take a massive and sustained political momentum which can exercise eminent domain in a very big way.
We don’t need more parking. It’s a waste of space and very expensive compared to more public transportation.
By all means allow people to build parking if they want to, but there’s no need for parking minimums.
I don’t see how more central planning could help. Our central planners love to block housing unless it meets 100 different conflicting requirements they make up on the spot. Just let people build!
Umm the algorithm allows you to bypass collusion laws by having everyone run the same algorithm. It’s the newest in legal innovation using algorithms to do illegal shit then blame it on the algorithm
Ah. I see How much housing should be built before you decide to go homeless instead of paying what colluding landlords decide they can extract from you?
The issue here is the collusion in place of competition.
I largely agree with the many angles here but I don't see it as a single "build it and they will come" issue.
I don't think it is there yet but are their rules about how much of the market can be owned by a single entity?
I know of a farmer who sold his farm and invested into housing. He had a big party when he got to 100. That was 20 years ago. Are there more of these "super investors" in the market?
After all, money is infinite, but land in the world is limited.
And yet people love it and want to call it home, and are willing to make sacrifices to do so. I know I have here in the Seattle area. Mind ya own business!
I think what they’re really saying is that maybe not every person who wants to live in SF, for example, can. There’s some upper limit on how many people can live there and if more people want to live there than can prices will go up.
So maybe not everyone who wants to live there gets to.
In the past this would cause other places to become “more San Francisco-like” (arguably Seattle itself has changed since the 80s and perhaps in this direction). Why that doesn’t occur could be interesting for discussion.
I’m not very familiar with SF and the Bay Area, but from what I have read about it my impression is that real estate in communities surrounding San Francisco and the Bay Area in general have absolutely been affected by the real estate situation in SF and become more San Francisco-like in terms of housing prices.
Again, not from out that familiar with the area so maybe I’m off the mark here.
They have - what I'm referring to is the older "city migrations" where if Chicago was "too big/expensive" then Detroit would come into its own.
So instead of SF continuing to expand to engulf all of California, other cities in other areas would begin to grow. Somewhat this has happened - Redmond near Seattle, etc, but we haven't really had any "ground up" new cities that I can recall, they're all offshoots/suburbs of existing ones.
I think this is a limited view. OPEC/OPEC+ controls about half of worldwide oil production and yet we can see how big of an impact production cuts that they make have on the price of oil. What we're seeing here is the same thing -- the ability for landlords to artificially reduce supply and force prices up. Just because there's software in the middle doesn't mean it's not a cartel.
Not if the company keeps apartments empty as mentioned in the article. With such an arrangement between landlords you can increase rent not matter the supply&demand.
There are high costs to an empty apartment. The bank doesn't stop demanding payment if the apartment is empty. Same with property taxes, heating, insurance, groundskeeping, etc. You can even find that the maintenance costs increase as problems that would have been seen and fixed (particularly leaks) are missed.
There could be an Elysium scenario where the super-rich will pay anything to live in a high-demand area, so the prices go so high almost all properties end up empty. That doesn’t seem beneficial to society, the environment or anyone.
If there were strong vacancy taxes the situation would change. Vancouver has a 3% empty homes tax. Let’s keep raising a tax like that until managing empty properties becomes untenable. If we want people to have more affordable homes to buy we should incentivize people living in them over managing them for optimal profit.
This has been the case for the last 7 years or so. In the bay area, apartment managers, who run REI-owned properties, blame the software for yearly rental raises, and that they have no say in how much they should charge rent. Mom'n'pop apartments or individual condos managed by third parties are reasonable in terms of negotiation, as they are not bound by any software.
Yes, the software used by these properties is another way to engage in cartel-like behavior--price fixing.
Having thought about it a little more, I think we don't like the idea of it because "shelter" is a basic human necessity, not an optional purchase. But a lot of the problem of unaffordable housing has been created by our own policies in the US, this article is a good summary of the issue:
'"Zoning is not a good institution gone bad. … On the contrary, zoning is a mechanism of exclusion designed to inflate property values, slow the pace of new development, segregate cities by race and class, and enshrine the detached single‐ family house as the exclusive urban ideal.” So writes M. Nolan Gray in Arbitrary Lines: How Zoning Broke the American City and How to Fix It.'
Even if you exclude zoning from the equation entirely and look at the raw material and labor costs associated with building it’s usually exceeding most definitions of “affordable”. Density is often lauded as a solution, but building vertically is more expensive than horizontally. It only helps spread land costs across more square footage. The costs of going vertical usually outpaces the savings of diluted land cost. So there’s really no solution that’s sustainable. The result being all affordable housing is a shell game of subsidies.
Some of this is our own doing as well as we continue to up the requirements of building standards/codes. Some make more sense than others, but in general we don’t design building codes with costs in mind and I feel that’s a pretty large recipe for disaster.
Eh, infrastructure costs of growing horizontally are underestimated in the sense you demand everyone has cars, massive interstates, thousands of miles of water and sewer piping, pollution problems brought on by car culture, etc.
This is mostly not true, excluding skyscrapers, which yes are costly. You’ve forgotten roads, sewers, utilities, sidewalk maintenance etc.
Missing-middle housing is much more efficient than suburbs.
Washington DC is a good example, for those unable to visit Europe.
>... in general we don’t design building codes with costs in mind and I feel that’s a pretty large recipe for disaster.
Speaking as a Floridian living in Tampa (who just had a near miss with a Cat 4 hurricane) that is an extraordinarily poor choice of words. Building codes aren't supposed to be designed with costs front and center; they're supposed to be designed to foster a sturdy structure than can withstand most likely actual disasters. Go look at the footage of Ft Myers Beach and Sanibel Island for some perspective.
This sounds like price fixing as a service, but I wonder if the law is prepared to handle it. The FTC guidance on price fixing[1] only discusses "agreement among competitors", and never mentions each party outsourcing pricing to the same service.
If the competitors never meet or agree on anything, is it still illegal?
Collusion by proxy is still collusion. My guess is their marketing will take care never to put in writing that effect, yet still communicating it with a wink and a nod.
> If the competitors never meet or agree on anything, is it still illegal?
No idea how the laws were written, but the vast majority were conceived before modern big data systems were possible, and even today most regulators are unprepared for arguments like this (from the article):
> Using software like YieldStar is “taking what we used to do manually on a yellow pad and calling people on the phone and putting it on a codified system where you take the errors out of the pricing,” he said.
Modern big data and ML capabilities mean that not only is the human removed from the details of the process, but even understanding the mechanics and relative weight of different inputs becomes all but impossible. Large-scale human-based processes can still feel opaque and arbitrary from the outside, but at least there are entry points for human empathy and (more importantly) accountability.
As we saw in the 2008 financial crisis, it's a very dangerous state of affairs when the risks and rewards of financial innovation are decoupled across different parties by means of opaque and unintelligible instruments. Computers are not the same as paper.
But for the most part this stuff doesn't work. And I think in this specific case if there were really some secret sauce they'd make a lot more money as property flippers. Buy underperforming property for cheap, apply secret magic, and sell much better performing property for much more would make you way more money than selling a SAAS.
Yeah, not a great example when ML is frought with discriminatory biases or bizarre edge cases like Twitter banning people for posting innocuous pictures[0].
People get so blindsided by the magic they forget that these systems are often designed poorly, trained poorly, and cannot be easily explained.
[0] I can't find the link, but it was something like a picture of a bear that resulted in your account being immediately suspended.
I would submit that you are making a common mistake in applying an engineer's or programmer's mindset to the law.
What I am thinking of is that company that tried to get around copyright by having their customer's buy TV antennas located at their HQs and then they would stream the feed from the antenna to the customer. Every piece was technically legal but because the entire scheme resembled a patently illegal activity (profiting from distributing copies of copyrighted material) the courts shut them down.
Similar reasoning will be applied in this case. If enough of the market is using the same service to set prices, that will be struck down as collusion.
It's illegal for competitors to get together and agree to a price floor but it's apparently not illegal to do so through a middleman. I guess housing is so inelastic that you can turn the screws and even let units stand empty to keep artificially high prices.
Because we have an overabundance of housing for one. Massive portions of our housing supply are sucked up as STRs and and second and third houses due to a decade of free money.
On top of that we have all time record numbers of houses set to be completed over the next few months which are still being snapped up by investors.
We have a shortage of available housing. Not a shortage of housing (there are individual markets where this isn't true and there are actually shortages of physical units). Fortunately, this is to some degree in the process of correcting itself but I doubt the place we get to is going to be a solution that very many people are happy with either.
> Because we have an overabundance of housing for one.
I've seen this canard so many times it physically hurts me.
I don't know where you found this so it's hard to provide specific debunking so I'll just go over all of them.
1) The houses aren't where people actually want to live. There is a lot of vacant housing in dying rural towns, mining sites, or the middle of nowhere. So unless you have a plan to get people to move to Buffalo-Butte then available housing there may as well not exist.
2) The most of the "vacant" homes aren't actually vacant. Depending on how badly the stats are gathered they will include a lot of garbage. Let's look at the list of things that considered vacant:
- Houses on the market for rent/sale
- Houses that have been rented/sold but not yet moved into
- Houses that unfit for human habitation
- Houses undergoing significant renovations
- Houses that are used seasonally
That's right, if your house burns down the still-smouldering rubble is considered vacant.
There is just not enough housing where people want to live. Objections like this only get brought up when someone is about a half-step away from proposition house rationing. Not for them though, other people should have their housing rationed.
Yeah well, if you sit around in the couple of places that have no housing and hate building housing, surprise, there's not going to be available housing and quality of life is going to be awful.
If that's the battle you want to fight in life more power to you.
If you want to battle your way through needles and shit and piss and the mentally ill and drug addicted to go sit in an fancier office and to live in a city with some cool restaurants so you can pay 6k a month for a 400sqft apartment or have roommates at 30 feel free to do it. But I really have minimal sympathy for people who sign up for this and then complain loudly about how much it sucks.
People also need to be asking themselves 'who opposes new builds, and where do their political donations go.' Property owners as an economic bloc are not passive political price takers, they lobby for their own interests and tend to be much more organized than tenants.
Seems like it’s real easy for them to assert something very like monopoly or cartel-like price manipulations on behalf of landlords without even doing so deliberately. Once enough people use your product it’s easy to make a claim like “raises average rent by X%” and have it be a self-fulfilling prophecy simply by virtue of tweaking the algorithm to favor increases regardless of market fundamentals and competition.
For the past few months I've been in a somewhat unusual housing situation. My wife is a medical resident in NYC, and the hospital system she works for is quite large and owns a lot of NYC property. They offer their employees subsidized housing at greatly reduced rates (meaning, an 1100 sq. ft. Manhattan apartment for $2300 a month). It has a "company town" feel, but it has been great for us, and the incentives seem like they're aligned in this case - employers have an incentive against being extractive because it reduces their employees' effective compensation. The residency program is 7 years which means we're stuck here anyway, and we don't have to worry too much about about her being fired or wanting to find a new job. In a competitive labor market like tech / finance / medicine it seems like employer-subsidized housing isn't a terrible idea, and is an alternative to just relocating corporate offices to a lower CoL area.
> it seems like employer-subsidized housing isn't a terrible idea, and is an alternative to just relocating corporate offices to a lower CoL area.
Would this be in a way similar to how we've tied health care to employer-based insurance? If so, I'm not sure I'd want to be in a position where my employer subsidizing my housing makes it difficult to leave said employer for better opportunities or, god forbid, you lose your job and then home subsidy.
I think it makes sense in some cases and hospital residency is one. It's a temporary position (even if temporary is 7 years), often where the employee has limited influence on the location. They're likely to have lived somewhere else before taking the position, and will live somewhere else after the position. There are existing strong incentives to not move jobs during residency, so an additional one won't hurt too much.
Before I switched to better living arrangement, the property manager at my apartment complex had the goal of sending my account to collection with a 100% fee for collections paperwork. These people don't have empathy or compassion.
I lived in one or two of these Greystar, etc buildings that used this software. They are expensive buildings. You can negotiate if you find the right people though (99% won’t be able to do this), it is rare and difficult.
People that don't think price collusion/illegal carterls hidden as software taking advantage of the fact people don't want to be homeless, please report this to the FTC.
RealPage seems to have recognized that multiple competing landlords in the same region who are independently setting rates and concerned about vacancy is a kind of prisoner's dilemma situation. Seems obvious they exploited that opportunity. Absolutely diabolical.
This whole discussion seems to miss the point that sellers always want to sell for as much as they can, and buyers always want to pay as little as they can. If the price goes too high, buyer's won't buy. You could get the same effect by having an auction every month for all the units that would be available in the next month - the price would still rise, but then you could blame the other buyers for "overbidding"
The optimal price for a seller is always "whatever the market will bear" - which we don't like the sound of it's a big "evil" corporation. But if any of us as individuals were selling a car for example, and some software would help us maximize the sale price, we would gladly use it - I don't see how the seller has a moral duty to take less money, same as the buyer has no moral duty to pay more
Thing is, we are talking about housing here. A basic necessity for everyone. I can live without a car, I can live without that expensive new_shiny_toy_of_the_month but housing is something that's vital, it has the ability to impact so many aspects of my life.
So the whole debate here, as far as I understand is, how ethical is all this. Is it ethical to squeeze every last cent out of a person looking to house themselves and their family?
I’d claim it’s more complicated as large groups could purchase said housing, and by intentionally introducing a certain amount of vacancy create enough of a shortage such that the rest of the portfolio becomes more expensive and “profitable”
Discounts are often given to build relationships: Gillette razor handles are sold at a loss, so you'll keep buying Gillette razors; my loyal mechanic is willing to sell me a used car at a smaller than maximum profit, since he knows I'll come to him for service; I'm willing to sell my labor for less than the maximum, in order to work on an exciting project that will greatly advance my career.
Short-term profit is often the enemy of long-term profitability.
Necessities like housing and fuel are great for sellers because they have low price elasticity of demand (people will keep paying for necessities) and low substitutability (moving is difficult and expensive - or you may be locked into a lease or mortgage; switching from gasoline to hydrogen or electricity may require getting a new car, while public transit might not go where you need to go; etc.) and barriers to new market entrants and/or to increased supply (beyond the time it takes to build new oil wells, refineries, or apartment buildings there may be regulatory barriers like environmental or zoning requirements).
Restricted supply and barriers to entry favor cartels and explicit or tacit price collusion.
Necessities can also provide steady tax revenue, since people are basically forced into paying the (usually regressive) tax.
The resulting high prices are, of course, terrible for people who actually need these necessities.
The market for addictive drugs (nicotine, etc.) has similar properties, though with some risk of legal or regulatory penalties.
> sellers always want to sell for as much as they can, and buyers always want to pay as little as they can
Not actually true. Lots of people discount or donate $ or labor or commodities by choice, as cash flow is only one of many things different people want to maximize. You've made the mistake of assuming one kind of economic behavior is the default for everyone. It isn't. There are 4 predominant patterns of economic behavior that emerge in simple economic games:
And you seem to be missing the point that this article is discussing a cartel created via a middleman; they are restricting the quantity supplied, not just setting their prices individually.
> Definitely not a decade and a half of virtually free money and endless liquidity that encouraged people to chases returns outside of stocks and bonds.
>No, it's those blasted algorithms.
You're spot-on about free money encouraging people to overspend. In Canada it's common knowledge that people would borrow against their house to put down payments into other houses, which they would borrow against to put down payments on other houses, etc.
But an effect can have more than one causes, and algorithms driving up the prices is another cause.
'Such agents sometimes hesitated to push rents higher. Roper said they were often peers of the people they were renting to. “We said there’s way too much empathy going on here,” he said. “This is one of the reasons we wanted to get pricing off-site.”'
Yeah many of the quotes in this article are straight out of the psychopath textbook. These are the worst kind of people, and unfortunately capitalism breeds them. It’s a system where ethics is a weakness.
It's unfortunate that you don't apply this standard evenly. There are regular posters of long standing who are equally ideologically driven and engage in flamewars on the regular (including in this discussion) and you never say a word to them.
Links? How am I supposed to respond to a drive-by accusation without specifics?
What I can tell you is that the answer almost certainly boils down to:
(1) we can't moderate what we don't see, so yes - the standards get applied inconsistently, and
(2) Passionate ideologues of every flavor are convinced that we secretly let the other side off easier. The actual dynamics are random but everybody overinterprets the randomness—always in the same direction: the mods are against me. The mods are not against you.
We've had this conversation before; you are just as capable of seeing the whole thread as I am, and I think you understand that I'm asking you to look at the patterns in it.
An obvious place to start would be deeply nested sub-threads with a low # of participants like this one, which was eventually pruned by being flagged: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=33225480
I don't feel you're 'against me', because I didn't have any participation in the thread at the time most of the discussion took place, and in any case it's been years since you shut down any of my comments.
What perplexes me is how a subthread like the one above (which got pretty snarky) was allowed to evolve without interference, whereas you acted quickly to chastise a person who made a single comment that didn't kick off a flamewar, and wasn't directed at any HN user or group of people.
Certainly nobody has the time, will, or desire to read every comment, but it's easy to observe the structure of a thread in diagrammatic form and see behavioral signals emerging before getting to any of the textual content.
It’s a system where relentless money printing cripples it by forcing that perspective. You need to gamble in order to keep your shirt, or you need to raise prices.
Simple solution is not to print money. Capitalism is not the problem.
The consultants come in, recommend you fire 10% of your workforce, and when you pull the trigger you say, sorry McKinsey made me do it! Likewise, the recommendations made by the software are non-binding, but if pushed you say “well the algorithm said so…”
In either case, it’s the c-suite/property manager making the call. But it seems that we like a measure of distance between ourselves and unpleasant decisions. The algorithm/well-groomed 20-somethings provide a kind of plausible deniability.
The answer is, of course, a ton more housing.