The baseline model is that people find a way to muddle through. Betting against that is a great way to make a small fortune by starting with a large fortune.

In the late 1970s, after my sister was born premature and died in the hospital my mom got really pessimistic about the future of the world. At the time watergate and patty hearst and Jonestown and disco and the hostage crisis in Iraq were top of mind. We thought we were running out of energy, nobody thought the U.S. couldn tame inflation, etc.

That’s not to say civilization can’t collapse because it can and it someday will. But people underestimate the resilience of humans and natural ecosystems.

The wolf does eventually come though. The post war (1950-1990) era was the stage that cynicism and complacency developed.

1990-Present is the capstone.

What comes after? Do we tumble down the other side of our technological tower of Babble, pyramid of the ages? Or do we ascend to the heavens transcending humanity with a Novo Ordo Secularum? Here we sit for a moment at the apex of history with the all seeing eye of technology.

Buckminister Fuller wrote a book titled ‘Utopia or Oblivion?’ which I always thought was a false choice. Heaven and Hell are states of mind you can experience right now.

I'm less worried about energy then I am about ecology. The oceans are being slowly poisoned and this continues to happen. They are big, but we can poison faster than they can self-clean. Eating too much of some wild caught fish, like tuna, is bad for you because you can get mercury poisoning. Why is there mercury in tuna? It's from burning coal. So there's that and the Corral reefs are dieing, fish stocks are declining, ocean chemistry is changing faster then most organisms can adapt.

Industrial agriculture is slowly eroding away the soil, while fertilizers poison the water (see above). This will eventually break.

Just those two things alone account for most of our food and we aren't doing anything in most cases, or enough in some cases, to change the course of these. So then what?

Cautiously optimistic.

I watch curiously from afar as we appear to be making our way towards the 2030s nanotech revolution that Drexler and others have talked about.

If that happens things like global climate change become manageable, antibiotic resistance and cancer are eliminated and we can take a crack at ending material scarcity.

But with that comes the threat of small scale DIY bioterrorism which increases the odds of our destruction.

Either way, I don't think that we can get out of our predicament with social coordination alone. Culturally and possibly as a species we just don't have it in us to coordinate this many individuals in the way to needed to tackle the problems, and there are too many defective bad-faith actors who aren't even really acting in self-interested positions if viewed from any timeline of significant length.

So my cautious optimism comes from technological revolutions. They've changed the face of human societies and improved the human condition for so many in the past, the hope is that they'll be able to do so in the future and that the nanotechnology revolution will lead to more individual autonomy than ever possible.

It depends on the timeline.

I see a bright future for solar and it's only going to get brighter. When launch costs are sufficiently low or space-based industry is sufficiently bootstrapped, space-based solar power collecting is going to get even better. And yes you can collect power in space for ground-based usage. The interim solution is by transmitting power. Ultimately you can even run cables (this is a deep topic).

I see climate change as inevitable just because humanity won't inconvenience themselves let alone invest massively in solving the problem. The only solution will be economic.

I'm actually reasonably hopeful. Our memories of past times are inaccurate. Even your date range (1790 to 1990) includes smallpox, polio, the Civil War, two World Wars, dropping nuclear bombs on people (twice), numerous other wars and the Cold War.

Part of your issue with an aging society is that misplaced sense of nostalgia, that false belief in whatever you grew up with is better or even "normal". Whatever that time is, it's gone. You can't step in the same river twice.

Heraclitus. Last sentence. A man for the ages.

The worst thing about an aging society is how it contributes to ungovernability. It has been the plan of Republicans since the new deal to get pensioners to vote to eliminate social security, but it’s a hard trick to pull and they blew the last chance in the GW Bush years.

I was kinda shocked how Biden defeated Trump by out-OO ding Trump.

Actually, we paid for our own social security. I have paid a small fortune into social security in my lifetime.

I do agree that Medicare and Medicare are freebies, but probably necessary to maintain a civil society.

> Actually, we paid for our own social security

> I do agree that Medicare and Medicare are freebies

Medicare Part A is funded much the same way as Social Security.

thank you. I stand corrected.

Wall Street is resentful that anybody gets a pension.

Also the psychology of the right in America is as such: if people imagine one illegal immigrant is collecting benefits of some kind they’ll deny those benefits to themselves to spite them.

I completely disagree. I think the future is likely quite bright, at least for humans living outside of Africa. If you're African or not human I'm not as optimistic.

Alternative energy is almost guaranteed to succeed. It's cheaper than every other type of energy, even with batteries, so why would anybody build anything else?

It looks like the world is on track for climate change of 2.5 degrees C. That's going to really suck, but it's not the civilization ending disaster than the 6 degrees we would have had if we hadn't done anything.

American hegemony is probably going to decline, but so what? The Dutch empire collapsed 300 years ago and yet today the Netherlands is one of the best places in the world to live.

Wars of aggression are pretty much done -- Ukraine is the exception that proves the rule. Civil wars are often nastier than wars of aggression and they continue, but it seems reasonable to suppose that Ukraine might be the last major war of territorial aggression.

Progress is occurring, and in general it requires fewer resources rather than more. The iPhone 12 is better than the iPhone 11, but it requires fewer resources. Software is eating the world, and it's not material. But the best example is the F-150 Lightning. You can buy that truck for $40,000 and over the lifetime of the truck save close to $100,000 in fuel costs, and several hundred fewer tons of CO2.

What do I think the future holds? More of the same. Local minima and maxima recogized as such after-the-fact. Surprises. Pleasurable and Painful. We just don't know what we don't know. Survival of our species, but less diversity in the remaining flora & fauna, at least for a time. Better or at least more sophisticated interventions in various systems by the ruling elites, aided by increased data collection, improved processing of it, simulation, ML, all that. Continued emphasis on threat-detection (survival value!). Continued under-appreciation of the miracle of it all.

How people feel about the future of the world seems to be largely colored by how they feel about themselves and how they feel about their own future. At least from a sentiment/valence perspective.

The future will have vastly more technical innovation in the next few decades than we’ve ever had. We’ll have 10,000x the amount of software we currently have. We’ll use that software to innovate in every non-software sphere, too.

Keep calm and do your best. Value the people around you. Cultivate your own skills.

I expect that financial and military industrial complex elites will continue to increase their control of western democracies. I expect more income inequality with a nice fat layer of well off people at the top, people with solid middle class lifestyles or better, and a larger lower class with a mostly decent life from some wealth distribution but a life without many of the good material things like travel and sending their kids to good schools.

I do think that technology will mostly solve the worse environmental problems eventually.

As a liberal, I joined the World Economic Forum to better understand what the Davos billionaire club is up to. I didn’t realize that they have used a decades long program to find the brightest young people, many who have high government and tech startup positions. Their trial commercials like “in the future you will own nothing and be very happy” are good indicators of their view of a planned society.

All that said, overall I am optimistic about the future. I believe in the resilience of humans and I can live with the elites having won the class wars.

One anthropologist who has studied the collapse of human civilizations is Joseph Tainter. This podcast interview and youtube interview covers Tainter's research and perspectives. Both interviews are pre-pandemic and Tainter's concerns about globalization (the reliance on semiconductors largely made by TSMC in Taiwan or the reliance on the global sea shipping system) are now our everyday reality.

omega tau science & engineering podcast - 184 - Societal Complexity and Collapse

https://omegataupodcast.net/184-societal-complexity-and-coll...

Joseph Tainter on The Dynamics of the Collapse of Human Civilization [2]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JsT9V3WQiNA

Humans have always adapted and overcome significant challenge, even in the face of degrading societies and erosion of values. None of that stuff is new. I think one way we'd succeeded at doing this (and ultimately are failing at now) is by focusing on local community - our family, friends, close relatives and neighbors - instead of an unhealthy obsession for events on the world stage. Not to say we should be ignorant of global matters, but too much exposure and worrying about what can't really be changed is bound to be a harmful thing on our psychology and thus survival.

Millions will die in World War 3, Global Poverty will take root and lead to more lives lost, Natural Disasters will reduce arable land, etc..

Aliens will come and enslave the human race, Meteor will burst from the sky and wipe out all life on Earth

Or things go as always it has been with technological growth taking mankind to the stars and beyond

Who knows

Zen and the Art of Saving the Planet [1] :)

[1] https://www.audible.com/pd/Zen-and-the-Art-of-Saving-the-Pla...

"bankrupt social values"

Can you elaborate on this? I'm not sure the current age is any more bankrupt than societies throughout history, and in many ways it's very obviously far better.

I can understand your feelings and thoughts, I have the same from time to time.

On the other hand: Renewable energies are getting traction, new generations are valuing other things (not always 100% altruistic maybe, but better than before), cities start to develop in new ways and I think there might be a faint hope for some kind of big swing around.

Large issues like climate change and turbo capitalism with all problems are still there and I'm not sure how to "fix" them fast enough but I still have hope.

And: We, each of us, can still try to be "the best version" of ourselves every day and live and stand up for what we value and want the world to be. That's the least we can try, probably.

edit: What I really wonder: How do we overcome social media with all its negative effects. I'm on IG myself but it's all so full of bad stuff. social media really has to change somehow.

I think it will be climate change leading to food and water shortages that trigger the collapse. Or perhaps I should say “new normal” after “new normal”

wrong attitude here, you can always work to change what you don't like.

There is always going to bet tough times. Just have to get through 'em. I believe majority of people are still fundamentally good. Even if they're not science majors... They still care about others. That's human nature.

Buck up champ and be the change you want to see in the world

Yep. Societal collapse or authoritarian techno dystopia. I think the dystopian aspect is more likely personally.

I noticed recently that authoritarianism is on the rise during this crucial generation in which we may produce the first AGI. The values and power structures we have now may end up being baked into the fate of the universe forever.

Even without AGI, though, we are reaching a point where governments can realistically demand that all computing devices contain TPM chips that limit which OSes (and thus which software) can run on them. That seems like too great (and too subtle) a power for even ostensible democracies to want to give up once they have it and inevitably start abusing it.

Have you not even considered the possibility that it might be humanity's embracing of science (however half-heartedly) that has brought about the degradation of man's psyche?

Humanity flourished in the pre-scientific era, but as it abandoned all other belief systems, it found itself more and more able to destroy civilization, while less and less able to answer transcendent questions on the nature of truth, ethics, man, and purpose.

Prometheus (Lucifer) stole the fire of the Gods (Elohim) to give to primitive man. Now as we are mesmerized by our glowing black rectangles (e.g. iphones) there is Hell to pay. Mephistopheles is always a master of the art of the deal and like Prometheus we will get our due. He his liver devoured in the lonely Caucuses crags only to regenerate each day, us our hearts torn asunder by the alienation of modernity. In 1990 at CERN the capstone was laid atop the pyramid of the ages. The internet became a world wide web. In 2001, with 9/11 the spider started his work in earnest. The capstone was gilded. An Odessy in cyberspace, with ever greater HALs (Human Abstraction Levers).

The world's a stage. Laugh and ridicule if you want but even the audience are players.

> we've discovered a large chunk of humanity doesn't believe in science and cares only about themselves.

Ironically, both "sides" feel this way.

Humans are the most interesting species to come along in a long time. It would be tragic if they go extinct.

How am I judging what's "interesting"? By human standards, of course. Do you have any other standards?

internet has made us soft in a sense, most people on HN judging by comments, think very narrow set of things are important - money at job, leetcode, status, politics, grievances. but actually collective action to avert disaster and genocide are the most important things.

I think war is the immediate future, and HN folks will have no way to cope. everyone should be doing science, lobbying congress for a carbon tax, forced urbanization.

individualism fueled by social media has a lot of people on here who think NIMBYs and WOKE are the only real threats

Could you elaborate 2nd para?

I think the future holds the doomsday.

Pride cometh before the fall.

By any chance, do you code in c++?

Anyone here read Alvin Toffler?

No, it's definitely climate change. Values and that shit are always changing but humanity endures and has thrived, despite Jordan Peterson's bullshit. But we need a balanced, functioning ecosystem to do so, and we've destroyed it and we're going to be annihilated because of it. We let capitalism win. We put stupid bastard ideology before reality and it's ending us. It's that simple.

Don't you think that with Dogged determination we can get through the Ruff times? Or are we Barking up the wrong tree and need to go back to the Lab?

Looks like we’re boned unless we can dig up a new solution. Mother nature keeps tightening the leash and our water bowl is getting dry.

No because I wasn't just making silly puns.

Your topic used to seem much more conscious before this comment has appeared. Time to use my "flag" button for a first time ever.

Serious question do you even know what I am talking about? Sometimes it is more than meats the eye.

I have a "Sirius" question for you too. Do you know that "clanging" is associated with mental illness?

"Clanging is a pattern of speech in which sounds rather [than] meaningful relationships appear to govern word choice, so that the intelligibility of the speech is impaired and redundant words are introduced."

https://text-id.123dok.com/document/oy806p4q-language-disord...

I don't doubt that the words are meaningful to you, but if you are trying to convey meaning to other people (rather than using text as some sort of performative art medium) then you might be more successful if you consider the perspective of your potential readers, who are not used to your writing style and don't necessarily want to decode your hidden message.

ha ha evil troll