So we only need half of what we saved when states went into complete lockdown and travel basically ceased existing? That's not a very positive outlook.

Not really, you went with one extreme of what I said, which was 5%-10% so anywhere from 25% to 50%.

Even getting consumption down 5% would be helpful. Other countries can increase output.

That's very selective reading. Here's what the article says:

> The unprecedented collapse in worldwide mobility as a result of lockdowns and travel restrictions in March and April 2020 slashed oil demand by over 20 million b/d, or 20% of total demand.

So the 20% drop was temporary, during the most strict lockdown months. Extrapolating that to longer-term periods is obviously a mistake.

> We expect about 75% or 6.3 million b/d of demand to come back in 2021

So the demand would be down by 5% (25% of 20%), YOY. No predictions as to how much it could come back in 2022.

The graph a little bit further down the article predicts oil demand to keep going up at least until 2035, and 2040 for all oil products.