I first became a US urban biker in 2003 before urban bike infrastructure really existed in the US, and I always felt and still feel safest riding on streets that have lots of traffic and no bike lane. Most US bike lanes are just paint between the parking spaces on the curb and the travel lanes. As such you can never predict if cars will enter the bike lane. I personally feel less safe in these unprotected bike lanes than I do riding in the normal travel lane because I find it less predictable. In the US if a car can physically get into a space, a driver will eventually go there.
This works for fit people with the wherewithal to approximate average speeds on the choked roadways. Bike lanes are towards the low end of what constitutes bicycle infrastructure, but they do give a great number of people the confidence to get out on their bikes. This is good for all cyclists, as all evidence points to “more bicycles; better average safety.”
Look to parents with kids in tow as an indicator species for the health of a bicycling ecosystem.
That said, I am personally wary of bike lanes for the reason I suspect you are: I’m constantly needing to be hyper vigilant about cars turning right across the bike lane. When I’m clipping along in traffic, I’ll move left in the lane at intersections to prevent this. Bike lanes can make this maneuver harder, especially if they have a painted buffer that is littered with tire-shredding debris.
I suspect, but haven’t seen research, that the right hook scenario is lessened for slower moving bicycles (i.e. the kind that are perhaps more drawn to bike lanes). There is a longer span of time for an overtaking vehicle to observe a slower bicyclist in the bike lane, which I’d guess reduces the risk of the driver turning across. Add to that, a slower moving bicyclist isn’t going to run into the side panel of a car turning across the bike lane with as much force.
