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> From what I understand, atmospheric physics is extremely complicated, and it sounds like a _very_ hard problem to develop accurate models for.

You are very right about that.



Then how can you say beyond a reasonable doubt that the majority of climate change is caused by man? I think it’s obvious that man is messing up the climate but I don’t know it’s obvious that they are the main cause “by a country mile.”


That's the consensus view. If you want to present evidence to support your contrarian argument, I'll discuss with you.


The key phrase in the question was 'beyond a reasonable doubt'. I'm not versed in atmospheric physics, so of course I can't present an educated counter arguement to the consensus, but it's complexity alone makes me skeptical of any consensus that's reached. It was only so long ago that an ice age was eminent, right?

If you have any quality sources (books, videos, etc) I'd be interested in reading up more, it's an interesting topic that unfortunately developed a polarizing and polemic dialogue.


> It was only so long ago that an ice age was eminent, right?

Yeah, we go through ice age cycles. We've disrupted that now, and that might actually be a good thing on a long enough timescale.

I think your hang up is that you think it's all based on climate simulations. There's lots of evidence apart from simulations, which I'm also skeptical of.

Some reading material to get an overview of what we know and don't know and how we know it:

https://www.nytimes.com/article/climate-change-global-warmin...

https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

This one specifically addresses your question about how much is attributable to humans vs natural factors:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-scientists-think-10...


>I think your hang up is that you think it's all based on climate simulations

Yeah, models are known to fail and I was under the impression this contributes to consensus heavily. Thanks for the links, I'll read these tonight!


This is one of those rare few times where I feel I did not waste my time disagreeing with someone on HN. I like your attitude towards things you don't understand.


Thanks! Yeah it's all too easy to lump people into stubborn camps, especially on the internet, but I appreciate you not dismissing me. I like nature as much as the next guy, but I'm just naturally a bit skeptical and that can come off as entrenched in some contrary viewpoint I guess.




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