> you can't influence national or global politics with your wealth, which is my point.
> And sure, not all billionaires are created equal, but that doesn't disprove my point.
If your point is that billionaires can influence national or global politics by virtue of their wealth alone — that's a pretty steep claim and the burden of proof to substantiate it is on you.
Nevertheless, I'll try to show you why the empirical evidence is simply not in your favor.
Hillary Clinton outspent Donald Trump by 2x in the 2016 election, and still lost. In fact, she had far more corporate backing than Donald Trump, and still lost.
In the 2020 Democratic Primaries, Michael Bloomberg spent $1 billion (!!) on his campaign, and won just 9.4% of the popular vote (1.38% of pledged delegates).
As I already pointed out, Tom Steyer spent $343 million on his election, and won 0.38%. Interestingly, you would think he would have at least 1/3 of Bloomberg's vote, which suggests that the vast majority of the variance in Bloomberg's vote share can be attributed to his existing name recognition as a famous businessman/politician, and not simply the money. No amount of money was enough to make their core message resonate with ordinary voters.
Bernie Sanders spent $195 million on his election, having spent less than Bloomberg + Steyer and while having handily beaten both. Joe Biden spent $105 million on his campaign, less than Bernie, and still beat him by 3 million votes (and counting).
Elizabeth Warren spent $121.31 million on her campaign, and also handily beat Bloomberg + Steyer while having spent far less than them, while losing to Biden while having spent more than him.
Those are just the anecdotes (of which there are many more).
Decades of research[1] suggest that money probably isn’t the deciding factor in who wins a general election, and especially not for incumbents. Most of the research in the last century found[2] that spending didn’t affect wins for incumbents and that the impact for challengers was unclear[3]. Even the studies[4] that showed spending having the biggest effect, like one that found a more than 6 percent increase in vote share for incumbents, didn’t demonstrate that money actually causes wins. In a time period where voters are more stridently partisan, there are probably fewer and fewer people who are going to change their vote simply because they liked your ad.
While you may be right that money affords one the platform to disseminate their ideologies, at the end of the day, ordinary voters need to accept that ideology, go to the ballot box, and check the box next to the name. If I'm a left wing progressive, no amount of money will convince me to vote for a right wing politician (and vice versa). No amount of money will install a leader that cannot convince voters to vote for them in a democratic election. As such, the claim that $23MM+ is "middle class" continues to be beyond bizarre.
Agree with your points, but it's not about affecting who wins by campaign spending so much as it is controlling the winner after they've won, because then you own them. This is why lobbyists will donate to both sides.
> Compared to economic elites, average voters have a low to nonexistent influence on public policies. “Not only do ordinary citizens not have uniquely substantial power over policy decisions, they have little or no independent influence on policy at all,” the authors conclude. [1]
> much as it is controlling the winner after they've won
But they can only win re-election if (and only if) their constituents believe that they continue to represent their interests.
Also, direct donations to campaigns run by the candidates themselves are ALREADY capped, both for individuals as well as corporations. It is only uncapped for organizations that are not affiliated with the candidate directly (SuperPACs), and this is strictly regulated.
So the point that you're making is: upon winning the 2016 election, if a bunch of billionaires promised Trump that they would donate to an unaffiliated SuperPAC for his 2020 re-election bid if Trump enacted policies opposite to what he campaigned on, he might be able to win his re-election. There is no evidence of this happening. Trump's base will refuse to vote for him if he flip-flopped on his immigration stances.
> And sure, not all billionaires are created equal, but that doesn't disprove my point.
If your point is that billionaires can influence national or global politics by virtue of their wealth alone — that's a pretty steep claim and the burden of proof to substantiate it is on you.
Nevertheless, I'll try to show you why the empirical evidence is simply not in your favor.
Hillary Clinton outspent Donald Trump by 2x in the 2016 election, and still lost. In fact, she had far more corporate backing than Donald Trump, and still lost.
In the 2020 Democratic Primaries, Michael Bloomberg spent $1 billion (!!) on his campaign, and won just 9.4% of the popular vote (1.38% of pledged delegates).
As I already pointed out, Tom Steyer spent $343 million on his election, and won 0.38%. Interestingly, you would think he would have at least 1/3 of Bloomberg's vote, which suggests that the vast majority of the variance in Bloomberg's vote share can be attributed to his existing name recognition as a famous businessman/politician, and not simply the money. No amount of money was enough to make their core message resonate with ordinary voters.
Bernie Sanders spent $195 million on his election, having spent less than Bloomberg + Steyer and while having handily beaten both. Joe Biden spent $105 million on his campaign, less than Bernie, and still beat him by 3 million votes (and counting).
Elizabeth Warren spent $121.31 million on her campaign, and also handily beat Bloomberg + Steyer while having spent far less than them, while losing to Biden while having spent more than him.
Those are just the anecdotes (of which there are many more).
Decades of research[1] suggest that money probably isn’t the deciding factor in who wins a general election, and especially not for incumbents. Most of the research in the last century found[2] that spending didn’t affect wins for incumbents and that the impact for challengers was unclear[3]. Even the studies[4] that showed spending having the biggest effect, like one that found a more than 6 percent increase in vote share for incumbents, didn’t demonstrate that money actually causes wins. In a time period where voters are more stridently partisan, there are probably fewer and fewer people who are going to change their vote simply because they liked your ad.
While you may be right that money affords one the platform to disseminate their ideologies, at the end of the day, ordinary voters need to accept that ideology, go to the ballot box, and check the box next to the name. If I'm a left wing progressive, no amount of money will convince me to vote for a right wing politician (and vice versa). No amount of money will install a leader that cannot convince voters to vote for them in a democratic election. As such, the claim that $23MM+ is "middle class" continues to be beyond bizarre.
[1] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2605401
[2] https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0002764203260415
[3] https://www.jstor.org/stable/2138764
[4] http://www.sas.rochester.edu/psc/clarke/214/Gerber98.pdf