Or, Israel having nukes has made their neighbors wary of another attempt at annihilating them, which could trigger a large war.

What series of bombings might start a global war? I doubt bombing Iran would be enough.

The nuclear bombing of Iran by a state would almost certainly be enough to precipitate the complete collapse of the NPT, which is already wobbly (the latest Review Conference ended in acrimony).

Subsequent nuclear weapons projects in erstwhile NPT NNWS could easily trigger a few regional wars, and from there the escalation to a global conflict is certainly possible.

According to Colin Powell they have 200 of them.

More than enough to bring the Fallout series to life.