You could argue that globalization has pulled millions of chinese peasants out of poverty, and helped creating a middle class in China, which is already increasing the pressure on the regime to transition to a democracy.
In any case, as some pointed out here, outsourcing to China is only the first step in the destruction of these jobs. Robotics is likely going to replace many of these jobs in the next 20y, which might bring back some industry into the West, ie more jobs but more sophisticated jobs.
> Robotics is likely going to replace many of these jobs in the next 20y, which might bring back some industry into the West, ie more jobs but more sophisticated jobs.
US manufacturing output is trending upwards, while employment is going downwards[1]. If anything, robotics is going to eliminate many more jobs than it creates, at least in manufacturing. Look at the tech giants today- huge companies, revenue in the billions, and they employ much fewer workers to achieve that output than giant companies of past decades. This is a major driver of economic inequality, and hence populism. But a government or laws or a president cannot hold back technological progress.
If anything, in 20 years, we could witness the end of capitalism as we know it because we can produce more with less employment, assuming current tech trends continue.
> If anything, in 20 years, we could witness the end of capitalism as we know it because we can produce more with less employment, assuming current tech trends continue.
I have to wonder if a capitalist like Trump can be of much help with such a transition.
"We’re losing a lot of people because of the Internet,” Trump said. "We have to see Bill Gates and a lot of different people that really understand what’s happening. We have to talk to them about, maybe in certain areas, closing that Internet up in some way."[1]
Trump thinks that talking to Bill Gates will allow him to "close that Internet up". This guy hasn't got a clue about technology.
The issues facing basically the entire global economy are extremely daunting. Our system of capitalism is based around increasing population and GDP leading to increasing levels of prosperity over time. What happens when you can automate large sectors of the economy, and you literally don't need that many people to sustain economic growth?[2]
I was using that quote as an example of how unsuited Trump would be with dealing with the issue of technological unemployment (frankly, I don't think any political leader would be capable of dealing with it effectively, as no political leader deals with longer term problems, at least not in the western world). I'm not sure you want to comparing the US to China or North Korea. Yes, it's technically possible to Balkanise the Internet to attempt to control the free flow of information, but this would be utterly disastrous for the US economy.
That's an awful easy argument to make when you're an upper-middle class white collar workers. I assure you, the vast majority of the American voting public do not care about the well being of Chinese peasants over their own. It's exactly that kind of Ivory Tower thought that landed us with Donald Trump.
> You could argue that globalization has pulled millions of chinese peasants out of poverty, and helped creating a middle class in China, which is already increasing the pressure on the regime to transition to a democracy.
Of course the college-educated middle-class service industry isn't paying for this in any way, they're the ones pocketing the difference between domestic wages and Chinese ones.
> In any case, as some pointed out here, outsourcing to China is only the first step in the destruction of these jobs. Robotics is likely going to replace many of these jobs in the next 20y, which might bring back some industry into the West, ie more jobs but more sophisticated jobs.
Productivity growth is the lowest it's ever been, and when it was the highest, wages were rising fastest and employment was at its peak. Automation, as it increases worker productivity, should also increase wages - adding to quality of life as people can consume more or choose to work less. The question is whether the government will make sure that a large proportion of the benefits of productivity are distributed to the workers, or will it allow those benefits to be entirely skimmed by the financial industry, creating an increasing hole in demand for anything other than luxury goods.
In any case, as some pointed out here, outsourcing to China is only the first step in the destruction of these jobs. Robotics is likely going to replace many of these jobs in the next 20y, which might bring back some industry into the West, ie more jobs but more sophisticated jobs.