The vast majority of tires that need to be repaired or replaced (and the processes to do so) haven't changed much if at all, though. And there are entire franchises that pretty much only do tires. Same with many other manual labor tasks.
These are predictable jobs with very few variables that there is still no sign of automation replacing any time soon. They often don't suck as bad as people think. One of the most enjoyable jobs I had was on an assembly line, because my mind was mostly free to wander. It was almost like meditation.
> most people want a white collar job and send their kids to college
Part of the reason for my prior comment is the clear fact that a not-insignificant percentage of white collar jobs are being massively devalued at the moment, which means many people who thought they'd be able to send their kids to college with income from such jobs won't.
Considering that the field of robotics is so far behind LLMs in terms of clear value outside of niche industrial applications, I think manual labor is about due for a resurgence. There may be some major rebalancing happening. The big question for laborers will be - as it has always been - what can I do that sucks the least but also allows me to pay for a decent life? Answers will vary.
I'm not sure how long this state of robotics will last. Dexterity is improving very fast. Robots are getting cheaper and cheaper.
But also, a lot of the manual labor is quite expensive and only affordable as long as there are white collar workers who can pay for fancy bathroom remodelings and landscaping and so on. I don't know how a big deluge of reskilled pipefitters and HVAC technicians will be able to find work. Will everyone just pay each other to do a bunch of handy work for each other?
This is the point missed by many. The trades are in high demand, right now, because of a labor shortage and demand from upper-middle class individuals without any DIY skills. A generation or two of pushing kids into college, and an almost disparaging view of 'getting your hands dirty' has built this perfect storm.
However, besides a few trades that use unions/licensure/apprenticeship as an artificial supply limit, most trades are only limited by a willingness to do the work. A few decades ago, trade work was much less expensive, because supply was higher and many did their own DIY, which limited what prices the market would tolerate.
Observers and technologists have also consistently failed to appreciate the continuing value proposition of hybrids, and Toyota makes some of the best, top selling models.
My biggest peeve with hybrids is that it gives consumers the mistaken impression that they're going to have to replace the batteries in their EV.
Most hybrids aren't liquid-cooled (although that is changing), and the smaller size means that a hybrid puts a lot more cycles per mile on the battery than an EV does.
Which in practice means that a hybrid battery lasts about 100,000 miles whereas an EV lasts about 250,000 miles.
A Prius is an amazing car; a 300,000 mile Prius is often still in good shape and worth the expense to replace the battery in. Which means you might put 3 batteries in a Prius and then look at how expensive it would be to replace the battery in an EV 3 times and choke. But very few people are going to spend the significant dollars it costs to replace the battery in a 250,000 mile Tesla so in practice that's an expense you'll never have.
A lot of the older hybrids use NiMH batteries. With that being said, a replacement traction battery for a 2nd gen Prius isn't that expensive, at least compared to newer hybrids/EV batteries. The second gen Prius is practical, affordable, and reliable (assuming proper maintenance).
The biggest issue with the Prius (at least for the years in my price range), is that the driving experience is liable to make one fall asleep at the wheel. They're the perfect cars for monks; if you're willing to forego all earthly driving pleasures, you can get high 40s mpg.
My grandmother drove a Prius, and there was a stir in my extended family as to whether she should still be driving, as she'd been seen going 20mph below the speed limit and was driving pretty far to the right side of her lane.
I got the opportunity to drive her Prius and promptly found myself alternating between going too fast and going too slow. Between the awkward pitch of the windshield and the gross-feeling electric power steering, I wasn't the best driver either. I never have any of these problems in my 2005 Honda Civic LX or my family's 4-cylinder 2011 Ford Ranger. The Prius felt like one of those stoned driving simulators that police departments bring to high schools in an effort to prevent DUIs.
I like the idea of hybrids and EVs, but it's hard to justify completely losing the pleasure of driving for 10 extra mpg. For all I know, newer models may have improved this, but they're still to expensive for me to pay any real attention to.
We clarified that the standard mileage for the Toyota Prius Prime is up to 500,000 miles, but we would place the high mileage point for the car at around 300,000 miles. Once the vehicle passes this point in its lifespan, it’s far more likely to experience issues that cost ample money to keep in excellent condition.
Hybrids are just amazing and SHOULD have mostly replaced ICE-only a long time ago. I'm going to cry the day the midwestern winter road salt takes my Prius away from me.
Hybrids are kinda the worst of both worlds though - you have all of the disadvantages of a internal combustion engine (maintenance costs, carbon footprint, fuel dependence), and all the disadvantages of a battery (car is more expensive, battery can die) and the only advantage is range.
In my opinion as a mostly-vegetarian who used to adore burgers as a kid, the Impossible brand was by far the most realistic (and my beef-loving partner would agree, they made stroganoff with it and loved it)... but the price truly is ridiculous at this point. It started out just barely justifiable, and it's simply too high now.
I am more than a little bit outraged that animals who were raised in miserable industrial production facilities to meet an ugly end are having their parts sold for less than a decent alternative simply because of subsidies distorting the market.
If I look at walmart right now, they have Impossible 'ground beef' for $9/lb and real ground beef is more than $7/lb. So the price isn't too high everywhere.
Agree. Impossible is on a different planet in terms of being very very close to the taste of real meat. Unfortunately still premium priced.
It’s a pity that Beyond is getting so much attention because they’re not the best ambassadors for meat alternatives. People will try it, and then decide to wait another 5 years before trying again.
I was directly told by senior staff at a large org I worked for that I'd be eligible for a managerial position-- the only thing I was missing was a degree. Unfortunately, getting a degree while working full time for the income I needed was impossible for me at the time.
My entire career would've been different if I had that "very last line on my resumes" and I'd be better off financially. I just couldn't pull it off. I hope yours pays you back eventually, it seems like you worked hard to get it.
For my career path specifically I don't think it has made a difference. I've only had two software jobs in my 17 year career, the first definitely didn't need a degree and I think my current one would've let me in without a degree as I was referred by an employee. I doubt my next job will still be in software, so I'll probably have gotten largely nothing out of the time & money I blew on getting that useless degree.
It is a little weird that these two events were so close to each other.
My tinfoil hat tells me Someone Important didn't want two shows from the same creator resurrected simultaneously and potentially competing with each other, but I put the hat back in the cupboard because even if it were true, that person's opinion would be stupid. Coincidences happen, and people can be fans of more than one thing.
Personally, I have high hopes for this Firefly venture. And for those who were hoping for a live action continuation, that's still not off the table! This may be how we get there.
Remixing art has been done since the invention of art. It doesn't ruin anything if the original work is preserved.
No one is required to like it. But the word 'hate' is a bit extreme, even in your example. Also, the group comprising "the classical music fans" is certain to include many who disagree with you.
I consider myself a "fan of classical music". We go to Philharmonic a few times a year and I own a remarkable collection of classical music. And I do go to parties and love techno...
Two pieces of advice I keep seeing over & over in these discussions-- 1) start with a fresh/baseline context regularly, and 2) give agents unix-like tools and files which can be interacted with via simple pseudo-English commands such as bash, where they can invoke e.g. "--help" to learn how to use them.
I'm not sure adding a more formal language interface makes sense, as these models are optimized for conversational fluency. It makes more sense to me for them to be given instructions for using more formal interfaces as needed.
Capturing data was the main bottleneck I ran into years ago when I tried something similar with a little MS Access database. I spent lots of time making it pretty and defining fields and data types, but actually typing stuff in? I lost interest quickly.
It's possible the friction could be reduced here by having some kind of Generative AI try to help capture data, but then you'd have to verify that it was being done correctly... honestly, I think it's simply not practical for most people to do this.
Real life is messy. How much time you want to spend on recordkeeping to make it seem less messy or make you feel like you have more control is up to you. But sometimes it's better to embrace the mess and let go of control, in my opinion. Chances are, no one's going to care about whatever you do here in 100 years. YMMV as always.
To be fair, a lot of the on call people being pulled in at 3am before LLMs existed didn't understand the systems they were supporting very well, either. This will definitely make it worse, though.
I think part of charting a safe career path now involves evaluating how strong any given org's culture of understanding the code and stack is. I definitely do not ever want to be in a position again where no one in the whole place knows how something works while the higher-ups are having a meltdown because something critical broke.
People on call will use AI as well. As long as the first AI left enough documentation and implemented traceability, the diagnosing AI should have an easier time proposing a fix. Ideally, AI would prepare the PR or rollback plan. In a utopia, AI would execute it and recover the system until a human wakes up.
Or at least there is something to chat with about the issue at 3am.
This. I've been a sysadmin for a quarter of a century and have professionally written next to no software. I've debugged every system I've had to support at some point though. It's a very different skill set.
True, but I think the implication (as I read it) is that AI may be providing more complex solutions than were needed for the problem and perhaps more complex than a human engineer would have provided.
it's MUCH worse now, not just because of the massive amount of code generated with zero supervision or very little supervision, but also because of the speed at which the systems grow in function
At church or during social gatherings in a friend's home, there is a certain set of expectations of behavior which are much more well defined and widely understood than the behavior you can expect from random people traveling though the NYC streets or subway.
There are settings where I'm much more likely to engage in conversation with a random stranger than others, because I know it's far less likely that they will react unpredictably and/or try to scam/hurt me.
Again maybe its a geographical thing since I don't live in NYC, but I have visited several times, so i have narrower perception of this. My view and experience is that its far more likely that engaging with a random stranger that they will either politely ignore you, go on their way than react unpredictably and/or try to scam/hurt you. Similarly, its more likely that they will respond to you (even if its a throwaway reply and thats that) than react unpredictably. A society where those two statements aren't true doesnt exist as it would be complete chaos with no interaction between anyone at all
These are predictable jobs with very few variables that there is still no sign of automation replacing any time soon. They often don't suck as bad as people think. One of the most enjoyable jobs I had was on an assembly line, because my mind was mostly free to wander. It was almost like meditation.
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