The mark for the end of the British empire was said to have happen when they lost control of the Suez canal. Iran is testing if this is the end of the U.S hegemony.
The Suez canal is a trade route for Europe and Asia for the most part. If this is a test of US hegemony, if anything that is a reminder of just how much Europe and China rely on the US.
The Evergiven was Taiwanese, not Chinese. Evergrande is a Chinese real estate company with financial troubles, which is unrelated to the Evergiven, unlike Evergreen, the Taiwanese company that owned and operated the Evergiven.
The fall of US hegemony is much more likely going to be the result of the US government abdicating its responsibilities to the world than the result of some other hegemon materially overcoming the US. This is as good an opportunity as any for that to happen.
If that risk begins to materialize, there is more than sufficient strength among the allied western nations to ensure that the situation proceeds to the “find out” phase.
As it stands western NATO nations are too timid to shoot down an Iranian unmanned loitering munition fired by russia and flying across NATO country to bomb Odessa. According to dpa (German news agency):
>russian drones violated Romanian (NATO ) airspace tonight. German interceptors approached the drones, “visually confirmed contact but have not received an order to destroy drones”. So the drones flew further towards Ukraine to kill Ukrainians. One drone exploded in @NATO airspace.
"The ministry strongly condemns the attacks by the Russian Federation on individual objects and elements of civilian infrastructure in Ukrainian ports on the Danube,”
This makes it sound like the US is doing its 'allies' a service. I must be mistaken in thinking that the US has been wrecking a havoc in the middle east for its own benefit and then letting its allies in the EU deal with the resulting inflows of refugees. Or how the US monopolized the tech sector and didn't allow any of its allies to foster their own tech industry. Thanks so much USA. Thank you so much for oppressing us and corrupting our politicians.
Sincerely,
Your allies
P.S. We're really going to miss this US-led world order because we love you guys so much! xoxo!
Our European allies did a fine job of handicapping their own tech sector. They obviously don't consider it a strategic priority and aren't trying very hard.
The US strategic pivot towards Asia is well underway. Now that we're effectively energy independent there's no longer an existential need to wreak havoc in the Middle East. Instead I expect the UK and France to resume wreaking havoc there as they did prior to Pax Americana. They don't really have another option to maintain critical fossil fuel supplies.
> We're really going to miss this US-led world order
You will miss it. Just because it's bad doesn't mean the alternative is better. The alternative will be worse. Many of the reasons that deaths from conflicts is at a historic low is because of the US-led world order. This is regardless of which school of geopolitics you subscribe to. If you believe in democratic peace theory, or the liberalism idea that trade reduces conflict, or the realist idea that we have less war only because we're in a unipolar hegemony, the US-led world order has caused less conflict deaths. I don't have to downplay the atrocities and contradictions of the US and their allies when accepting this reality.
I'm not sure about that. An invasion of Iran could cause significant budgetary and institutional harm, as well as destroying trust in the US's leadership position in the world and in the rules-based international order on which international US power depends.
Iran would be the most powerful foe since WWII (perhaps not counting China's involvement in the Korean War, but afaik China's only power then was masses of soldiers). They are more wealthy, more populous, and more politically, economically, and militarily capable than Iraq and Afghanistan combined - possibly more than all foes since WWII combined. Geographically, they are mostly mountains, especially along their coast [0]. They have been preparing for generations to fight off the US.
After Vietnam the US military was a mess for many years, arguably until the Gulf War. Also, weakness creates a negative reinforcement loop: When enemies and competitors see the US weakened or just consumed with a problem, they will make moves that worsen the US's situation.
Invasion isn’t required. The current regime has managed to survive and make strategic gains via proxies to emerge as a regional power despite crippling sanctions for decades. They are supplying drones to Russians. If they formalize a military-economic bloc with Russia and China, it would be a far more dangerous (but likely) outcome.
There won't be any invasion. No one has any appetite for that.
If a conflict with Iran comes it will be something like Operation Praying Mantis again plus strikes against key economic targets such as oil refineries. The Iranian navy and air force are largely defenseless against stand-off strikes. They would still be able to cause trouble by sponsoring terrorist groups, but all of their forces capable of projecting regional conventional power could be wrecked in a few weeks of sustained strikes.
(I am not suggesting that this should be done. Obviously everyone should look for ways to deescalate the situation.)
>They would still be able to cause trouble by sponsoring terrorist groups,
The US country hasn't experienced 'real terrorism' (IRA, Baader Meinhoff, Red Brigade etc), especially on a sustained scale. It would indeed be a terrible thing for just a few lone wolves to pop over the border. Being such a vast continent the damage could be horrifying, not least of all for brown people.
(Big nod to George Carlin).
There is no Iranian navy or air force to speak of. It's an irrelevant force. Iran projects power using proxies and using missiles, none of which are easily disabled by stand-off strikes.
Exactly. It is also hard to grasp why this is needed to be stated upfront in 2023. Do people still believe next year will be the year of Linux Desktop?
