too early for standardization. resist the urge. Let a bunch of ideas flow, then watch the Darwinian process of the best setup will be found. Then standardize.
good post, but I disagree Surival Function is needed for AGI. Why do you think Survival Function is needed?
The item I think you should add is a Mesolimbic System (Reward / Motivation). I think AGI needs motivation to direct its learning and tasks.
Also, I don't think the industry has just been training LLMs with more data to get advancement the last 2 years. RAG / Agents loops / skills / context mgmt are all just early forms a Memory system. An LLM with an updatable working set memory is a lot more capable than just an LLM.
Kids develop video game skills, grandmothers do not. Hypothetically grandmothers develop baking skills, that kids do not (perfectly golden brown cookies). A human intelligence is generally capable of developing video game skills or baking skills, given enough motivation and experience to hone those skills. One test of AGI is if the same system can develop video game skills and baking skills, without having to rebuild the core models... this would demonstrate generalized intelligence.
Trump did this a lot with the legacy media in his first term. He would make inaccurate statements to the media on the topic he wanted to be in the spotlight, and the media would jump to "fact check" him. Guess what, now everyone is talking about illegal immigration, tariffs, or whatever subject Trump thought was to their advantage.
People always need to be reminded, though. It seems to be in human nature to fear bad publicity, and the people who fear it less end up with disproportionate power as a result.
if you can identify where and how prediction markets are wrong, why aren't you applying that and making millions?
> - Prediction markets generally become more accurate as the diversity of the bettor pool grows. The users of polymarket and Kalshi heavily skew towards young men from certain socioeconomic groups, who may be biased towards one or the other outcome.
Citation? If your small population is high IQ, accurate predictors and you diversify to average IQ population, won't the accuracy go down not up?
More seriously, set it up as you would a junior employee with a high quality getting started guide, guardrails, and clear feedback loops that it's doing tasks correctly (otherwise it will just suck). Then delegate tasks to it, start simple and grow in complexity as it demonstrates it does a good job on the simple tasks.
What role it does for you depends on your business, and what is best fit for automation. Purely digital roles with good feedback loops are the ones I focus on.
Keep being cynical and that's the media you'll get.
In the real world, professional media organizations regularly expose corruption. More often than not? No idea. But to pretend they only engage in cover-ups is cynical fatalism.
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