The scenario (from march 2021) simulates a monkeypox outbreak in starting in 'brinia' on 15 May 2022 that was an engineered strain for vaccine resistance.
It's some coincidence there is an actual outbreak in May 2022 in Britain.
Matt Levine at Bloomberg (always an informative and entertaining read) looked into that Apr 27
Musk does not have to close the deal if there has been a “material adverse effect” at Twitter. (Sections 4.9 and 7.2(b).) “Material adverse effect” is defined on page 5 of the agreement and it is long. Actually the definition doesn’t say much; it just says, tautologically, that a “Material Adverse Effect” is “any change, event, effect or circumstance which, individually or in the aggregate, has resulted in or would reasonably be expected to result in a material adverse effect on the business, financial condition or results of operations” of Twitter. All the action is in the exceptions to the MAE. As I suggested yesterday, there are lots of them, and it is somewhat difficult to think of an event that would cause a material adverse effect on Twitter’s business but not be covered by an exception to the MAE. If Twitter does badly due to all sorts of general conditions (changes in law, general economic and financial conditions, pandemics, etc.), that does not count as an MAE. If Twitter fails “to meet internal, analysts’ or other earnings estimates or financial projections or forecasts for any period,” that doesn’t count as an MAE; just having bad earnings isn’t enough. And, as usual, bad effects that result from “the negotiation, execution, announcement, performance, consummation or existence of this Agreement or the transactions contemplated by this Agreement” do not count as an MAE, though here they felt it necessary to spell out “including (A) by reason of the identity of Elon Musk, Parent or any of their Affiliates or their respective financing sources, or any communication by Parent or any of its Affiliates or their respective financing sources, including regarding their plans or intentions with respect to the conduct of the business of the Company.” If Elon Musk breaks Twitter by tweeting his plans for it, he still has to buy it.
The US, and all worldwide economies may be a bubble, sure. But they are 100% safe for as long as people keep consuming, working, and the economy keeps moving forward. It doesn't really matter for the US as much as it would matter for smaller economies like Zimbabwe or Venezuela.
We may experience a recession the likes of Lehman Brothers, sure. But nothing is going to collapse. People aren't suddenly going to go into the woods, and let their cars, smartphones, and AC units rot.
A thing that might collapse sooner than other things. People wanting generally to leave your country is more of a liability, people wanting to arrive at your country and work for cheap is more of an asset.
