If you take into account the silence from officials and politicians then 2) seems more likely.

Officials aren't silent on these matters. Very embarassed at their total inability to do something about it, is how I'd describe it.

What I don't understand is... is it really only NATO aligned countries?

Maybe I just didn't read the article well enough.

In the USA we get over 100 drone sightings near airports per month. ( https://www.faa.gov/uas/resources/public_records/uas_sightin...? ) ( we are certainly 'NATO aligned', but it's the easiest source of drone incursion records I could find )

What about Asian countries? African Countries? Does the EU have better drone detection? Does the EU overreact due to the current tension levels within the EU?

the whole article reads like a FUD-laced sales pitch for gathering public support for an expensive anti-drone tech. There's even a whole section talking about how it will be a 'financially controversial question'. The article starts with fearmongering around the drones not having explosives 'yet'.

Maybe there are normal or slightly elevated levels of drone incursion due to idiots with access to cheap drones. Maybe the drone-wall vendor working with their partners within the EU saw an opportunity to exploit fear to gather support

edit: I tried to get data for the EU similar to what the FAA produces. I failed. Chatgpt says there "maybe" reason to believe in a recent spike in sightings. I am maybe overly cautious about trusting that a spike is indeed happening and it has hostile intent. I am reminded of the mass delusion in New Jersey of the 'drone sightings' that ended up being nothing interesting.

I would not rule out China out either. Let’s not forget some of their recent state backed exploits as well as the “weather” balloon that flew over America.

why is China flying drones over Italy? is Italy a big backer of Taiwanese independence?

it is almost certainly Russia, or NATO running drills.

also don't underestimate idiots and assholes in the same way that incoming flights to airports still have to deal with people shining laser pointers at them on an irregular but not uncommon basis

It most likely is Russia but China is always worth considering. They have a strategic partnership and have been part of many probes into western nations both physical and digital. I would not doubt it’s Russia but I think it’s good to always consider the possibilities.

China is as much of an adversary to the west as Russia but they are a lot smarter about it.

3. NATO countries stirring up shit to justify war mongering.

NATO invaded Ukraine?