I agree that Dual Citizenship is a dream among a large plurality of Americans, but I don’t think it’s for Visa-free tourism. I think it’s because a growing number of Americans feel that the country is unstable and likely headed toward a failed-state status.
Yeah as an American that has been living abroad for a decade and will be a dual citizen soon: I don’t agree with that take at all.
The vast majority of people in the US still see their future in the US. Dual citizenship, much less actually living abroad, is still an extremely niche topic and basically only a thing amongst upper middle class and above professionals and tech workers.
And as chaotic and concerning as many political events may be, the idea that the US will become “a failed state” is pretty divorced from the actual reality of what that term means. If the US becomes a failed state, trust me, the rest of the world will be too.
> The vast majority of people in the US still see their future in the US.
I mean, obviously, otherwise they wouldn't be there in the first place.
Just an anecdote, also with bias, but almost every American I've met outside of the US (from all walks of life, from uber rich to almost homeless) seems to agree with the idea that the US is approaching a "no turning back" point, and cites that as being the reason they moved away.
> If the US becomes a failed state, trust me, the rest of the world will be too.
I'm fairly sure every citizen of a huge empire felt like that too, through the ages. Rome citizens surely felt the same, until it turned out that no single entity is powerful enough that the entire world would be "failed" just because one nation failed.
I think your sample is pretty biased, because that viewpoint doesn’t apply to me or any Americans I’ve met abroad. Skeptical or critical of America and American culture, sure, but I certainly didn’t move abroad because of those reasons.
Most Americans abroad tend to be there because of work, or because their partners are from the country. The number of people able to move abroad because of recent political issues is extremely small, because that sort of life flexibility is not available to the vast, vast majority of people.
I mean, obviously, otherwise they wouldn't be there in the first place.
Where would they go? Immigrating to another first world country is pretty expensive and difficult. Just picking up and moving somewhere abroad is really not an option for 99% of people.
It was true for Rome though, at least within the area over which Rome was the hegemon. It took literally centuries to recover back to the level from which Rome collapsed.
Maybe we understand "the world" differently, but the fall of Rome didn't mean the fall of the world, even if you consider "the world" to be Europe.
But if we had a time machine, I'm sure we could find people saying "If Rome becomes a failed state, trust me, the rest of the world will be too." unironically.
I specifically stated that the domain here is "the area over which Rome was the hegemon". Which is less than the whole world, obviously (but also more than Europe; North Africa, for example). We're talking about the rest of the world today because USA is truly a global hegemon, though.
And I don't know how you define "fall", but the standards of living and things like technological knowledge, culture etc basically cratered for several centuries; it sure does sound like a fall to me. "Failed state" is a modern term that doesn't quite have a direct analogy, but even so what was going on in most Roman provinces (and ultimately even Rome itself) could be reasonably described as such - stable governance would also take centuries to reassert itself.
> And as chaotic and concerning as many political events may be, the idea that the US will become “a failed state” is pretty divorced from the actual reality
Becoming a failed state overnight? Probably not, I agree. Midterm elections are approaching and the federal government has already shown its willingness to deploy the military to big cities for intimidation purposes. Also don't forget: our current President also tried to prevent the peaceful transfer of power after the 2020 election. I feel like we get stuck in this "nothing ever happens" loop while our liberties slowly get stripped away and even after a thing happens, we delude ourselves by saying it won't actually get that bad. Frogs in a pot.
There's a famous saying about going bankrupt: "How did you go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly"
In this case, "going bankrupt" is the dissolution of the United States. We definitely won't be able to predict when it happens, and it may be unlikely, but IMO the likelihood of it happening ticks up the more I see how the federal government is attempting to crush dissent.
Not to mention completely apolitical things like the debt crisis, which will be unmanageable after a certain point. Our biggest line item in the budget is now paying interest on the debt. And we just passed the OBBB which increased deficit spending by $3.4T over ten years.
All of that could happen and the US still wouldn’t turn into a failed state. There are orders of magnitude more technology, intelligence, non-governmental organizations, cultural knowledge, etc. in the country than in places which became failed states.
Nearly half of the country views the other almost half as fascist. The half viewed as fascist views the other as socialist/communist. The two have lost the ability to effectively communicate with one another. The spending on the military is bankrupting the country, and within a decade debt service will consume 100% of tax revenues. The monetary expansion is causing inflation, and lowering interest rates will worsen this. At the same time, idiotic trade policy levying tariffs is making things even more expensive. Rising political tension with a simultaneous diminution in economic conditions is the breeding ground for extremism. We already see the two halves struggling to get anything done in congress, so amelioration of these conditions is unlikely. How long does the most well armed society in history tolerate this?
Any country can swiftly become a failed a state when ruled by someone idiotic enough. The question for the USA is whether or not it can survive the current pressures it faces. There a social, political, economic, and geopolitical pressures on the country at the same time. Thinking that the USA could become a failed state isn’t far fetched at all.
“Collapse happens slowly at first, and then all at once”
Nearly half of the country views the other almost half as fascist. The half viewed as fascist views the other as socialist/communist
That isn't even remotely true, and if you think it is, I think you're in an extreme information bubble. The vast, vast majority of people are just going about their daily lives and in are in no way whatsoever thinking of half of the population as fascist or communist.
> Midterm elections are approaching and the federal government has already shown its willingness to deploy the military to big cities for intimidation purposes.
Fall of democracy to dictatorship is a different problem than a failed state, and both that and balkanization are more likely than a failed state scenario (though balkanization could result in one or more failed states among the successors.)
just an anecdote, but i've seen (in the last few years) more and more "move abroad, where and how" kind of youtube videos in the black american community, with sometimes some kind of consultancy service attached.
it's definitely not big numbers but it is starting to get in the common black zeitgeist i guess. to some extent.
It's the most empowering thing in the status quo; when a check and a balance from one entity to another is mutually-existential, it keeps things at a pretty steady pace.
M.A.D should be practiced in policy more often, without having leverage - there's no reason to represent you.
I agree: although there is a very small chance that civil war will break out in the US, there's essentially zero chance it becomes a failed state.
The administrative consensus created by FDR is breaking down, and it is not yet clear what will replace it. (Trump is unlikely to be the main architect of the new administrative consensus.) To people who cannot help but view everything through the lens of the old consensus, it looks like the entire US society is breaking down, but the US is very good at invention and reinvention, so once the outlines of a new administrative consensus forms, state capacity will return very quickly.
I’ll borrow ideas from investing: financial independence, diversification and optionality. If you have enough money you can free yourself from the labor market, but you are still deeply tied to your home country. A second citizenship gives you geopolitical independence. And just like diverse investments protect you from the failure of a specific asset, diverse countries can protect you from, for example, a collapse in heath care, a housing crisis or a currency crisis. And most importantly, its like an options contract on life. You have the option, not the commitment to take a high value move to a new country. If the fortunes of your current country sink and your second country rise, you can exercise your option.
There’s a reason people are willing to spend so much on golden visas with the pathway to citizenship.
>And just like diverse investments protect you from the failure of a specific asset, diverse countries can protect you from, for example, a collapse in heath care, a housing crisis or a currency crisis.
Although, just like certain asset classes correlate strongly, certain countries are geopolitically, economically, militarily tied at the hip and will both rise and fall together.
I wouldnt consider anywhere western a good hedge against America going down coz it has a really good chance of getting dragged down with it.
"Individual investors must make a minimum contribution of €600,000 to the national development fund set up by the government and prove 36 months of residency. Alternatively, there is an expedited route which requires a contribution of €750,000 and evidence of 12 months residency" [1]
The New Zealand Active Investor Plus resident program requires $5m NZD, which is under $3m USD, but that would take everything. There is another program mooted where you buy a business for less than that.
Not a citizen, but yes, I've had a shift in perspective lately and noticed a similar shift among other immigrants of keeping backup options in mind rather than thinking of America as a reliable place to be.
Even if we view the current situation as temporary and it goes away in 4 years, the knowledge that a large chunk of the population is just looking for an excuse to harass immigrants and destroy their life regardless of citizenship status, pulls America down to the level of many other places, which maybe have similar issues but do much better on other things.
Plurality means the largest option amongst other options. 33 million people is a lot, but it’s not a plurality (typically something like 30%) or a majority (over 50.1%.)
Same. It's shifted from an escapist fantasy about getting away from it all to a more literal definition of "escapist fantasy". if it weren't for family & friend ties binding us to our geographical area it'd already be a lot more serious. We're not *that* far from a low end FIRE situation, so a move to a more LCOL country could make a ton of sense and escape ... all of this.
From an EU perspective I would have been out of there in February. But what is it they say, again? "Grass is always browner on the other side"? It also helps being part of a minority that the sitting regime wants to exterminate to the very definition of the word.
It’s not as simple as hopping on a train and leaving. No one in my immediate family has citizenship in another country or some other easy path I can take advantage of. Most countries require you to live months out of the year in that country for years and/or overcome some other major hurdle. Canada filters based on your education, profession, criminal record, etc. and IIRC it takes upwards of 5 years to get citizenship. It’s not like I can just fill out an application, pay a small amount of money, and be done with it. That’s not even considering if you have kids. Whole different ball game.
I know you probably know all of this, yet your response is vastly oversimplifying the issue. You would’ve just quit your job, packed up your family and belongings, sold your house if you own one, uprooted your kid(s) if you’re a parent, said goodbye to any friends/family here, and left weeks into the administration for a country you aren’t a citizen of? Just like that?
If it was just moving to another state, even though that is also not without its challenges, I could see an argument for that. That’s probably more akin to what it’s like moving around Western Europe/the EU. But permanently leaving the US is no small matter.
Exactly this. I mean, I know I qualify for the golden visa or equivalent in a number of countries in which I'd like to live. But that's *very* different from it making sense for me to turn on a dime and move there. And that's before I consider things like moving away from elderly family, leaving friends, and more.
But I've shifted from "it sounds nice to have an expat retirement in one of these places 10-15 years from now" to "I should start looking into what this would look like as the chance I'd want or need to do this sooner is no longer 0%". And that's a huge indictment on the state of affairs here in my mind.
I get a lot of grief for it from a few people but the simple fact is it’s gone from an unthinkable possibility to something I would consider a single-digit- percentage possibility. At that point it feels like something I need to at least be moderately prepared for. Especially as someone in the gulf south.
It just doesn’t feel very safe down here anymore. Watching ICE roll through in full equipment on armored vehicles during Mardi Gras this year was a serious wake up call. That’s not the kind of show of force you do for shits and giggles. That’s textbook “send them a message.”
My mom's dad was from Italy and her mom from Germany. I want to try for German citizenship. It looks like I'm eligible based on what I saw online. Previously I had looked into Italian citizenship and found that I wasn't eligible because my grandpa had become an American before my mom was born
You used to have to prove that your ancestor hadn’t given up the Italian citizenship which is where you would have missed out. I believe your ancestor is now limited to parent or grandparent AND one or both must have a ‘connection’ to Italy - as in they were born there and/or live there. I know nothing about German citizenship but my advice to you would be to start the process now given the far right momentum in Germany and the world in general. I’ve been through the process and mine was fairly straightforward and it still took a couple of years to gather and legalise document and then go through the process.
I can’t get Italian or Irish citizenship because I’m ethnically Bangladeshi. Many Americans, however, can get Italian or Irish citizenship, because they have grandparents born in those countries. Virtually all of these people are ethnically Irish or Italian—who else has grandparents born in Ireland or Italy? They are de facto ethnostates.
I certainly don’t begrudge them that—I’m grateful my people have their ethnostate. My ancestors have been in Bangladesh for 25,000 years—I shouldn’t (and in fact don't). need a visa to go back.
I am Irish, we are not an ethnostate whatsoever. Truthfully I don’t know why we have citizenship by descent but Irish people roll their eyes at Americans with Irish ancestry.
It’s not about ethnicity though, it’s familial lineage. If your grandfather was Bangladeshi and moved to Ireland and was a citizen, then his descendants moved to the US, they would be entitled to Irish citizenship.
Ireland is a homeland for Irish people. That was the whole point of the country. The same is true for my country. It was something achieved at great cost for the sake of a people.
How many Bangladeshis had Irish citizenship in 1950? Almost none. Ireland was 87% Irish as recently as 2006, probably more if you exclude residents with UK citizenship. Virtually anyone who doesn’t have Irish citizenship but whose grandparents did have Irish citizenship is ethnically Irish. For most European countries, there is no difference between “ethnicity” and “familial lineage” until recently.
I’m a third worlder who knows how dangerous ethnic identity is. And after never thinking about race growing up, we suffered a cultural revolution in America. I was declared a “people of color” and now my daughter’s middle school has racially segregated affinity groups:
> Middle School Affinity Groups: BIPOC, Black Girl Magic, Neurodiversity and Disabled Alliance, Rainbow Affinity, Young Men of Color Affinity
If you know about the political situation in America you would know why it is ironic that someone would invoke ancestry-based citizenship rights to leave America out of protest of the current president.
Agreed, the problem is that in many scenarios where the US becomes a failed state.. you probably want to be IN the US rather than living under our security umbrella (Canada/Europe/Japan/Korea/Taiwan/Australia). Or worse, in a nation we might end up in a shooting war with (Russia/China).
Either enemies are going to make moves in our absence, or we are going to pray upon former allies (next orange man takes his trade wars kinetic).
So I'd rather still be in the exponentially larger (population & land) isolated continental power surrounded mostly by water and smaller states.
